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GDP expected to expand by 5.7% in 2001-02
India`s real gross domestic product is expected to expand by 5.7 per cent during 2001-02 as against 5.2 per cent growth achieved in FY-01, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said in Mumbai.
India's real gross domestic product is expected to expand by 5.7 per cent during 2001-02 as against 5.2 per cent growth achieved in FY-01, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said in Mumbai.
The official estimates have placed GDP growth in first half of 2001-02 at 4.9 per cent, down from 6.1 per cent in the similar half of 2000-01. Thus, the growth in second half would bounce back to 6.4 per cent from 4.4 per cent last year, CMIE said in its monthly (January) review of the Indian economy.
“This would give an overall GDP growth of 5.7 per cent for the year,” it added. The expectation of a recovery in the industrial sector in second half was based on the premise that good agricultural growth would lead to an increase in farm incomes and this in turn would generate demand for consumer durables, it said.
CMIE said agricultural sector's GDP was expected to rise by 6.5 per cent during 2001-02, aiding the industrial sector which is estimated to grow by 3.5 per cent while the services sector would expand by 6.6 per cent. Overall agricultural production and is expected to rise by seven per cent, recovering from the 5.8 per cent decline in FY'01. Production of food crops is estimated to grow by 6.8 per cent, while that of non-food crops would increase by 7.3 per cent, it added. According to the review, in October 2001, the Index for Industrial Production (IIP) growth inched upto 1.9 per cent from 1.6 per cent in the previous month, but was substantially lower than the 6.8 per cent increase recorded in October 2000.
During the period April-October 2001, the IIP expanded by a mere 2.3 per cent from the 5.9 per cent rise in the same period a year ago, CMIE said. It said the manufacturing sector witnessed a growth of 2.4 per cent during April- October 2001 down from 6.2 per cent in April-October 2000. The slowdown was on account of decline in production of food products, textiles, wood products and metal manufacturers. The consolation was the rise in production of beverages & tobacco, leather products, rubber, plastic, petroleum & coal products and transport equipment, CMIE added. On public finances, the review said gross fiscal deficit (GFD) rose to Rs 79,133 crore during the current fiscal year from Rs 64,269 crore deficit in the corresponding period of 2000. Until November 2001, the GFD was 68 per cent of the budgeted target, it added. Central government's expenditure during the first eight months of 2001-02 grew by 11 per cent. Bureau Report
“This would give an overall GDP growth of 5.7 per cent for the year,” it added. The expectation of a recovery in the industrial sector in second half was based on the premise that good agricultural growth would lead to an increase in farm incomes and this in turn would generate demand for consumer durables, it said.
CMIE said agricultural sector's GDP was expected to rise by 6.5 per cent during 2001-02, aiding the industrial sector which is estimated to grow by 3.5 per cent while the services sector would expand by 6.6 per cent. Overall agricultural production and is expected to rise by seven per cent, recovering from the 5.8 per cent decline in FY'01. Production of food crops is estimated to grow by 6.8 per cent, while that of non-food crops would increase by 7.3 per cent, it added. According to the review, in October 2001, the Index for Industrial Production (IIP) growth inched upto 1.9 per cent from 1.6 per cent in the previous month, but was substantially lower than the 6.8 per cent increase recorded in October 2000.
During the period April-October 2001, the IIP expanded by a mere 2.3 per cent from the 5.9 per cent rise in the same period a year ago, CMIE said. It said the manufacturing sector witnessed a growth of 2.4 per cent during April- October 2001 down from 6.2 per cent in April-October 2000. The slowdown was on account of decline in production of food products, textiles, wood products and metal manufacturers. The consolation was the rise in production of beverages & tobacco, leather products, rubber, plastic, petroleum & coal products and transport equipment, CMIE added. On public finances, the review said gross fiscal deficit (GFD) rose to Rs 79,133 crore during the current fiscal year from Rs 64,269 crore deficit in the corresponding period of 2000. Until November 2001, the GFD was 68 per cent of the budgeted target, it added. Central government's expenditure during the first eight months of 2001-02 grew by 11 per cent. Bureau Report