Geetika Jain
With hullabaloo over Assembly elections 2003 subsiding, both Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party would have to start strategizing for the big battle in 2004. The BJP has reasons galore to fly high over its victory wave and Congress has to lick its wounds. Congress has to pull up its socks. Looking into the past mistakes, getting a feel of the grassroots reality, putting its act together, striking alliances, re-launching the party image and a possible change in the leadership are the various issues that the party needs to mull over. The BJP would have to come out of the success mode and get ahead with the preparations for the general elections in 2004. The party has all the reasons to jubilate and exhilarate. It expected victory in two states but the score of 3-1 comes as the most pleasant wonder. Now with celebrations over, they have to look to the task ahead.
Congress has received severe drubbing at the hustings and seems surprised by the debacle. It is clear that electorate in the Hindi belt has voted them out. Even the Delhi sweep is hardly a consolation as it is more to the credit of Sheila Dikshit than the party itself. The party as a whole has been defeated. Its stalwarts Digvijay Singh, Ashok Gehlot and Ajit Jogi could not save the sinking boat. The party’s central leadership’s high hopes on its chief ministerial candidates have been dashed. Taking stock of all the reasons for the humiliation is the most crucial task for the Congress leadership now. Is it that the party has been voted out or that Sonia Gandhi has been shown the door? 2004 would provide the answer to this all-important question. Till then, introspection and future strategy planning should become an exercise for the beaten squad.
Starting with the change in leadership, the scenario is quite jammed. When Sonia Gandhi adorned the throne way back in January 1998, she resurrected the party out of the ashes. It was under her authority that party formed government in 16 states together. The top slot that was lying distastefully vacant was filled by her charismatic presence. Braving the foreign origin issue and staring her opponents in the face, she came a long way to lead the party that staged the upheaval of BJP. Then, what went wrong this time?
Her initial appeal came as elixir for the dying Congress, which was reunited under her leadership. Congress is used to being ruled by the Gandhi aristocracy and only this magic wand could put things in place initially. But things have changed now. It was not just her charisma but also strong anti-incumbency factor playing against the BJP, which led to the latter’s downfall. One must not forget that anti-incumbency is a cyclic tendency. This time it worked against Congress except in the Capital.

Starting with the leadership issue, there are many in her own party and of course in BJP and the Opposition who are looking for Sonia Gandhi`s head after this defeat. Her foreign origin issue has already been politicised unduly. So, right now, all guns are pointed at her. However, this seems highly unfair as one can`t afford to forget that it was Sonia Gandhi who gave the party a breather when it was sinking under Sita Ram Kesri. She was the only motivating factor and the kind of mass appeal that she enjoys, no other leader in Congress can even think of right now.
Sonia is the magnetic centre that holds the party and its various factions together. Despite all the dissidence, she represents the united face of the party. Surprisingly, this is also the undoing of Congress. After Sonia Gandhi, there is no other potential leader in the party. With Madhavrao Scindia and Rajesh Pilot consumed by cruel fate, the second, third, fourth…. slot in the party lies empty. She is skeptical of all potential heirs to the throne. Arjun Singh and Narsimha Rao have already been sidelined and other ambitious leaders are cut down to size every now and then. May be, voters still can`t accept her as a PM in the making but her capacity and capability as Congress` numero uno remains challenged. Now, what the Congress really needs to do is to reboost its cadres and actively reconnect the state units with the central committee. Probably, in these elections, central and the state units were out of sync.
Even in campaigning, not many national leaders were seen addressing rallies. And the case with BJP was just the opposite which paid dividends ultimately. BJP took national leaders of the stature of Vajpayee to every state and the state in-charges appointed by the central committee like Arun Jaitley and Pramod Mahajan were seen canvassing rigorously. A better election strategy may still see Congress through in the finals of 2004.
As of now, only one thing can be said in her context….. Abhi Dilli Door Hai…
A state wise analysis of Congress defeat throws up interesting facts. To begin on a good note, let us start with Delhi. An emphatic victory in the political hub of the nation gives many a reason to rejoice to the Congress. Still, the fact remains that more than Congress’, it is Sheila Dikshit’s victory. She was the sole charioteer of the victory ‘rath’. The upcoming cosmopolitan electorate voted for her and the diminishing Punjabi nature of the city worked against Madan Lal Khurana. Congress can probably boast that in Delhi, the anti-incumbency factor was against the Centre. This might or might not be correct but one thing is for sure that the credit is purely Dikshit’s. Congress, as a party, cannot hijack her due and this is all the more reason for the party to worry. The only place where it won was due to the chief ministerial candidate and not the party.
Rajasthan defied all pre-poll surveys. Drought was the major affliction of the Rajasthanis but Ashok Gehlot’s drought management was also highly commendable. In fact, the good monsoon last year brought smiles on everybody’s face in Rajasthan Congress. Ashok Gehlot was confident of his victory and so were all others. So what was the problem? One, the anti-Jat wave against Gehlot did his undoing. Just before the polling, Jat Mahasabha unanimously decided to vote against the incumbent. Two, Rajputs of the state upped the ante against Congress and added to its suffering. Then, the tribal belt in the region touching Gujarat was won over by BJP with active campaigning of Narendra Modi and other central leaders. In fact, the blitzkrieg of campaigning by BJP and its success in projecting Congress as a non-performingparty and clouding its achievements sounded the death knell for Gehlot. The lacklusture electioneering by Congress with Sonia Gandhi visiting just once and no other star leader ever seen there, BJP could easily poach over the voters.
For Madhya Pradesh, almost all pre-poll and exit poll surveys indiacted what came out ultimately. The only reason why there was no loud anti-Digvijay Singh wave in media was his miraculous win in 1998 with the similar predictions. The public of MP twice gave him a chance and then ‘shocked’ him for not providing them with adequate Bijli…Sadak…Paani for so many years. People were tired of him and voted for change. Nobody is sure whether BJP can provide better governance or not but Diggy Raja was to be thrown off the throne.
Chhattisgarh makes the most interesting study. Congress was banking on the anti-BJP sentiment after the Judeo tape episode. There was anti-Ajit Jogi wave too but Judeo story promised to project BJP as the bigger crook. So, both were running neck to neck. However, the division of vote share and Congress’ failure to strike pre-poll alliances with NCP, BSP, Left and other anti-BJP parties cost it dear. With V C Shukla’s defection from Congress early this year a major vote chunk also shifted to NCP. Had Congress merged this vote bank with itself before the polls it could have donned the crown. BJP won with easy majority because of this division of mandate against the Congress. And of course, anti-incumbency factor was always playing largely.
Lessons are to be learnt and screws have to be tightened…. alike for Congress and BJP. The latter must also not forget that it was just the semi-final. The real battle lies ahead. Any laxity in approach or complacency will prove to be thw Waterloo for the celebrating lot.
The sooner the lessons are learnt, the better it will be for both the parties. Otherwise, balloters always have their own way of teaching.