The talking point may still be the US visit of Vajpayee but the spotlights should now be directed to another equally important visit – that of the Russian President Vladimir Putin to India. This visit will have a significant impact on the Indo-Russia relationship. Prionka Jha looks into the agendas of the two countries for this visit. While Vajpyee’s visit to US is still being discussed, it is time to shift focus to yet another important relationship --- the Indo-Russian relationship. The graph of the two countries has been very positive and has always been forward looking despite the difficult times both countries have faced for a long time –at different levels and on different grounds. In fact the forthcoming visit of President Vladimir Putin from October 2 is going to have a significant impact on the Indo-Russia relationship which is expected to unfold new dimensions.
A presidential visit from Moscow could not materialize for many years for ill-health of Putin’s predecessor-Mr Boris Yeltsin. He came here way back in 1993. These seven years have seen a shared vision of India and Russia on many fronts—cross-border terrorism, narcotics trade, international peace, developments in Kosovo etc. As a matter of fact, one needs to delve into the strong background of this relationship to understand the commonality of many issues both dearly cherish.
The India-Russia relationship is founded on geopolitical reality. For past several decades, both countries have survived the tremors – both internal as well as external. Whereas Russia has survived the agonies of the disintegration of USSR, India has itself gone through many changes on the domestic front—be it coming to the power of the BJP-led government or tremendous changes on the economic front. There seems to be an urgency on the part of the two countries to forge a stronger alliance in the new millennium. As Sergei Prikhodko, chief foreign political advisor to the Russian President, says “Kremlin attaches enormous importance to Mr Putin’s visit to India. The long-range national and geopolitical interests of Russia and India largely coincide. Our cooperation helps stabilize the situation not only in the Asia-Pacific region but also promotes a healthier political climate throughout the world”. Economic co-operation This time the spotlight is going to be on the bilateral trade without doubt. As it is reported in various quarters the India-Russia economic relationship is really going nowhere. The bilateral trade figures for April 1999-January 2000 registered a 34.13 per cent rise at $1.31 billion from $1.25 billion in 1998-99, over 50 per cent of the trade is the debt-repayment process. Since Russia auctioned the rupee payment, there have been talks of reinvesting the money in Indian joint ventures like modernization of TISCO etc, cooperation in projects in the petroleum sector, banking and insurance matters, including a credit line from India’s Exim Bank for export of engineering goods to Russia.
Union minister of Commerce and Industry Murasoli Maran has stressed the importance of trade as a key element of strategic partnership. So much so that the Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov reached New Delhi much before the state visit of Putin’s arrival to discuss and finalise many agreements to be signed during the President Putin’s visit. “We have thoroughly reviewed all the essential moments for the visit of our President here and discussed most of the documents which are being prepared for signing,” Klebanov said after meeting Yashwant Sinha, Finance Minister of India. At present the bilateral trade between the two countries is $ 1.5 billion out of which $ 900 million is from the Indian side and $ 600 million from the Russian side. Though Russia has been amongst the largest buyers of tea and tobacco but it can make additional purchases of teas and tobacco from India to the extent of around 50,000 tonnes each worth about $ US 150 million.
There is tremendous potential for strategic cooperation between the two countries in the diamond sector as well. So much so that India ranks as a largest processor of rough diamonds while Russia is the largest producer of diamonds in the world.
Russia is one of the oldest buyer of the Indian Param supercomputers. India and Russia have agreed to explore ways of enhancing co-operation in IT sector, especially with regard to exchange of infotech students and utilization of scientific manpower. Political and military cooperation
The continued references by Indian and Russian officials to the unique quality of their bipolar relations imply a certain resilience and common perspective in Indian and Russian strategic, diplomatic and economic interests. India has been largely supportive of the Russian position on secessionism and Islamic fundamentalism, opposition to NATO’s military action against Yugoslavia and has backed it whenever it came under attack in the UNHRC. Though Russia is a party to the Security Council resolution on the Indian nuclear tests, it has tacitly accepted New Delhi’s nuclear power status. Indo-Russian friendship fostered by their mutually advantageous military-technical cooperation—gives both the countries an opportunity to counter Western pressure and press for the much-heralded multi-polar world. With the bulk of Indian defence equipment being of Soviet/Russian origin, it is not easy to bring about a sudden and radical change in the country’s weapons procurement policy. While expanding military-technical cooperation with China, Russia does not want to lose India as the other major customer of its military hardware, India and Russia have a long term programme of military-technical cooperation upto the year 2010. Diplomatic efforts must be aggressively pursued from the Indian side to make Russia understand the India’s compulsions. A mechanism must be evolved coinciding with Putin’s visit, where Russian arms deliveries to the third countries – above all China – do not endanger Indian security. It would be in keeping with the provisions of the Indo-Russian Treaty of Frienship and Cooperation signed in January 1993. India must also ensure that the Russian technology should not pass on to Pakistan by China.
Putin’s visit is surely awaited with lot of interest not only by India but also by the major powers in South Asian and Asian regions. US will also have an interest in the outcome of this visit. Prof. Nirmala Joshi, Director Russian & Central Asian Are Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, has this to say when asked about future of Indo-Russian relations, “India and Russia enjoy a very close and friendly relations. I don’t foresees a major shift in the near future. In fact, PM Vajpayee just concluded a successful trip to the US. But the Indo-Russian partnership certainly will not affect the friendly tenor of India-US because India and Russia enjoy geopolitcal and security concerns in the region and are largely compatible. The extreme negative political and religious aggression on both the nations enjoy support of Pakistan and Afghanistan. She further feels, “In fact, Putin’s visit to India will now be on an even firmer ground.”