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The Congress is riding high on its impressive performance in the Lok Sabha elections, but the BJP is not giving up hope in Haryana. Despite facing anti-incumbency and fallout from farmer protests and wrestlers' agitation, the saffron party is banking on social engineering to turn the tide in its favor. In the recently concluded 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP secured leads in 44 of 90 assembly seats while the Congress was ahead in 42, and AAP in 4. However, the BJP's challenges run deeper, with a strong anti-incumbency wave and a split in votes likely to favor the Congress.


Despite this tight race, the BJP faces considerable challenges. The party’s performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where it led in 79 seats but won only 40 in the assembly polls held six months later, highlights its struggles. The BJP is also contending with anti-incumbency and the fallout from ongoing farmer demonstrations and wrestlers' agitations.


BJP spokesperson Sanju Verma remains optimistic, focusing on social engineering to swing the vote in their favor. Verma argued that the significant OBC and Dalit vote shares—more than 60% of the electorate—are still up for grabs. "The OBC votes in Haryana are at more than 40% and Dalit votes at more than 20%, which means 55 to 60% of the votes are still up for grabs for the BJP," Verma said.


Psephologist Yashwant Deshmukh, speaking on India Today, says the BJP's non-Jat politics in Haryana could work in its favor, even if Jats vote against the party. "The BJP has won two elections primarily polarising the non-Jat voters of Haryana," he said.


Deshmukh also pointed out internal issues within Congress, particularly former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda's resistance to an alliance with AAP. "Hooda remains the most popular Congress leader in Haryana, complicating efforts by the central leadership to manage the situation," he said.


Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari, quoted in the same report, says the BJP is confident due to natural consolidation against dominant communities in the state. "That's what BJP has been doing for the past 10 years," he said.


Tiwari also highlighted the fragility of the Jat-Dalit-Muslim voter coalition, suggesting that historical tensions between Jats and Dalits could affect Congress. "The BJP believes that a multi-cornered contest, with contenders like JJP-Bhim Army and INLD-BSP, might work in their favor," he said.