Maharashtra assembly elections are almost a year away. The state is currently under the NDA regime after a rebellion led to the fall of the Maha Vikas Aghadi government. The NDA constitutes of the BJP and Eknath-Shinde-led Shiv Sena while the MVA is a coalition of Congress, Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party and Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray). Zee News in collaboration with the Matrize held carried out an opinion poll to gauge the people's mood that who will win if elections are held today. The survey revealed some surprising results.


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Maharashtra Opinion Poll 2023: Vote Percentage


As per the opinion poll, the NDA is likely to get 46 per cent of votes if elections are held today while the MVA's vote share will be 35 per cent and MNS may get around 3 per cent of votes. When asked whether Uddhav Shiv Sena's decision to support Congress in 2019 was right or wrong, 57 per cent of the people said that it was wrong. When asked about whether the NDA alliance is better or MVA, 48 per cent of the people polled favoured NDA while 32 per cent voted for MVA.


Maharashtra Opinion Poll: BJP vs Cong Seat Share


According to the Zee News-Matrize Opinion polls, if the elections are held today, the BJP-Sena may bag between 165-185 seats thus getting a clear majority. On the other hand, the Congress-led MVA is likely to get 88-118 seats while the Raj Thackeray-led MNS may get around 2-5 seats. The survey also revealed that others including independent candidates may get 12-22 seats in the 288-member Maharashtra assembly.


Uddhav Thackeray Vs Eknath Shinde As CM


In response to Uddhav Thackeray's work as a Chief Minister, only 27 per cent of people were satisfied while 45 per cent said it was worse. When asked about the present government's work, 47 per cent termed it better while 19 per said it was bad. When asked about Eknath Shinde's performance as the chief minister, a whopping 51 per cent termed it better while 27 per cent termed it satisfactory. Around 17 per cent of the people polled were not happy with Shinde's work. 


Shiv Sena Rebellion And Fall Of MVA


In the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP and the Shiva Sena had contested together. The Bharatiya Janata Party had got 105 seats, Shiv Sena 56 seats, Nationalist Congress Party 54 seats and Congress had won 44 seats. While Devendra Fadnavis was expected to be the chief minister once again, Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena demanded that the CM should either be from the Sena camp or the post should be shared between both the parties for 2.5 years each. The BJP did not agree to the proposal and Shiv Sena broke away from the NDA, and joined hands with the Congress and the NCP to form the government. While Thackeray became the CM, Ajit Pawar was sworn-in as the deputy CM.


In June 2022, Eknath Shinde along with 11 Shiv Sena MLAs revolted against Thackeray. Later, it turned out that Shinde had the support of 40 MLAs. This led to the fall of the MVA government and the Shinde faction along with the BJP sneaked into power once again. Shinde was made the Chief Minister while Fadnavis was made Deputy CM. Now, the upcoming election will be a test of the grassroots support that Shinde and Thackeray enjoy. It will also clear the cloud around which of the Sena factions is considered real by the people of Maharashtra.