New Delhi: After facing political uncertainty for a year, Delhi is all set to vote for a new government. Will the 'Modi wave' catapult the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to power in the capital or can the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) withstand the 49-day fiasco are the hottest topics of debate today. To gauge the mood of Delhi and to assess as to which party may emerge as the winner on February 10, Zee News commissioned a survey through TALEEM Research Foundation.


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As per the survey, the BJP will bag 37 seats while the Aam Aadmi Party will emerge second with 29. The Congress may finish third with 4 seats, the survey suggests.


The survey shows that 45% of the voters think that the BJP has a good chance of forming a government after the Delhi Assembly Election 2015. 34.2% respondents think that the AAP has a good chance, whereas, only 13.7% voters are of the view that the Indian National Congress (INC) might bounce back and form the government.


When asked which party the voters thought could give good governance to Delhi, BJP was ranked the highest being the preferred choice of 45.1% respondents. The BJP was followed by AAP (34.6%) and the Congress was preferred by 14.7%.


The capital's voters look resolute to end the period of political uncertainty as 82.2% of the respondents felt that the Delhi polls will usher an era of stable government in Delhi.


When asked whether one felt if women were safe in Delhi, a staggering 83.9% voters replied in the negative making it one of the rallying issues in the upcoming Assembly elections. Price rise, however, remains the most important issue for 84.3% voters in Delhi. It is followed by two other issues that relate to road, electricity and water (70.8%) and corruption (69.9%). Security of women (60.9%) was the next important issue that voters felt needed to be addressed.


Of all the respondents, 54.1% believed that it was essential for the BJP to form government in Delhi so as to get full support from BJP-ruled Central government for the capital's development. However, 32.3% voters think otherwise and 13.6% respondents ‘do not know’ or ‘cannot express’ any view. The political leaders of BJP are harping on this issue and emphasising this point for development of Delhi while campaigning in the polls.


When asked whether the image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi would weigh in their minds while voting in Delhi Assembly elections 2015, the opinion was more or less divided. However, 47.5% voters said PM Modi would weigh in their mind while voting, whereas, 43.3% voters thought otherwise.


Good work done by contesting candidates would be the most important factor while voting for 39.4% respondents, while 33.2% said they will elect a candidate keeping in the mind the quality of candidate. Only 25.6% said they will vote on party lines. Similarly, 65.1% of voters believe that 1984 Sikh riots will not affect the results. However, about one 21.7% respondents believe that it may influence the outcome of the election results. Similarly, the opinions among the voters are almost equally divided whether Assembly election results of Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Harayana and Jammu and Kashmir will effect Delhi Assembly elections 2015. 45.2% voters believe it will, whereas, 46.8% believe it will not have any affect.


In 2013, 39.1% voters claim to have voted for BJP, 31.8% voters answered AAP, followed by 20.3% for INC. Typically, men had voted for BJP (40.9%) while women had voted for AAP (35%). An interesting observation was that while 43.3% graduates had voted for BJP only 30.2% had voted for AAP. There seems to be an inverse relationship between education and voting between BJP and AAP. INC also had followed a similar suit of voting by education (lowest 17.2% voter were graduates).


In Delhi Assembly Election 2015 once again 43.1% voters planned to cast their vote in favour of BJP highest being graduate and above voters (48.7% voters) followed by AAP 34.2%. In third place is INC 13.0%. It indicates that BJP may gain 4% votes whereas AAP may gain 2.4% votes. On the whole, both gains are at the cost of INC which may loose as much as 7.3% votes in these polls. It may be noted that 8.6% voters are still undecided who may swing the results of the elections.


The survey was telecast on 'Delhi Ka Mood' show on Zee News.


During the Opinion Poll Survey a major political event that took place relates to joining of former cop and social activist Kiran Bedi and Shazia Ilmi, with few others in the BJP. This has added a new twist and colour to ongoing process of Delhi polls. Some of the BJP leaders have even hinted that Bedi could be future CM and the same has been highlighted by media to provide a strong and stable government which will be fully supported by Central government (read Prime Minister, Narendra Modi). While no direct impact of these political events could be discern in this phase of opinion survey, its effects could be seen in the second phase of opinion survey and in final election results.