Ajith Vijay Kumar Notwithstanding the public display of confidence by Shiv Sena-BJP leaders that the NDA will the majority of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra, the electoral jigsaw in the state is expected to remain a puzzle till the last vote is counted on May 16. Besides the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance, the NDA will have to also overcome challenge from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), especially in Mumbai and other urban centres. While the UPA constituents, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), are facing double anti-incumbency and the allegations of corruption – ticket to Adarsh scam tainted Ashok Chavan has not helped matters - and lack of credible plan to prevent farmer suicides, it would be premature to predict that the combine is a spent force. The Congress had won 17 seats and the NCP eight in 2009 and they still retain the power to spring a surprise on the NDA. As part of the strategy to present a fresh face to the electorate, the Congress has given tickets to a number of new names like Sanhay Deotale and Rajendra Gavit. The NCP has also sought to play on its strength by nominating party heavy weight Chahgan Bhujbal from Nashik. More than the Congress, which has a national foot print, it is the NCP that is facing the big test to stay relevant and that too at a time when the party is set for a internal churning given the announcement by party supremo Sharad Pawar that he will pay way for his daughter Supriya Sule in Baramati with he himself taking the Rajya Sabha route to the Parliament. Pawar wants his daughter to be his political hire amid stiff challenge from his nephew Ajit. But one thing remains constant through this phase of changing equation – Pawar`s desire to be prime minister one day. He may not be actively pursuing it but given his maverick nature and the uncanny ability to sit on the fence during crucial periods makes it impossible to rule him out of the race to 7 RCR if the Third Front manages a decent showing. Another important move by Pawar has been the praise of Modi by his confidante Praful Patel. Though Pawar later disapproved of Patel`s views, the first – the most crucial – has been taken towards the NDA. Going by the rants of their leaders, the Shiv Sena-BJP appears to have smelt power. They have formed `Maha Yuti` (mega alliance) with Ramdas Athawale`s Republican Party of India, Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana (SSS) and Rashtriya Samaj Party (RSP). The formidable alliance gained more power after Vinayak Mete`s Shiv Sangram party joined it after severing sides from the UPA. With the alliance in place, the NDA hopes to improve its performance in western Maharashtra and Konkan. Also add to its advantage in Vidarbha and Marathwada. However, the biggest trouble spot for the NDA is the Mumbai region where the family spat between the Thackeray brothers is set to upset the calculations. The BJP did try to prevent such an eventuality by initiating talks with Raj Thackeray but stiff opposition from Uddhav forced the saffron party to abandon the plan, at least on paper. Playing ball is Raj, he has announced his support for Narendra Modi as PM but also has fielded candidates against, mainly against the Sena, seriously jeopardising the party`s chances in its stronghold of Mumbai. Matters are not looking up for the Sena internally as well after many senior party leaders, including the chief spokesperson, quit to join the NCP. Despite his grand standing, Uddhav Thackeray would be more than banking on the `Modi wave` to help it come triumphant in tough seats. Caste calculations are also a factor that the Sena-BJP combine will look to overcome with help from Modi. The 15% Maratha votes and the similar percentage of Dalit votes are being eyed by both the sides. While both communities support Congress- NCP in 2009, Sena-BJP is working to break the winning comination. Entry of Shiv Sangram and RPI are part of the exercise. The third factor, literally the `elephant in the room` is Mayawati`s Bahujan Samaj Party. The UP-based Dalit party has a strong folling in pockets of Maharashtra with it being in position to be the deciding factor in a number of seats. Mayawati has already held rallies in the state and will look to open her party`s account in the state of birth of Ambedkar. Some of the most keenly followed constituencies are Nagpur where former BJP president Nitin Gadkari is facing the daunting task of defeating Congress stalwart Vilas Muttemwar and AAP`s Anjali Damania. Congress general secretary Mukul Wasnik and NCP leader Praful Patel are the other high-profile contestants in the Vidarbha region. Another senior BJP leader, Gopinath Munde, is looking to defend his Beed seat from challenger Suresh Das. In Konkan, all eyes will be on the Raigad constituency where Shiv Sena`s in engaged in a direct fight with state minister Sunil Tatkare. The seven seats in Mumbai are all high-profile with known faces like Milind Deora, Kirit Somaiyya, Priya Dutt, Mahesh Manjrekar and Medha Patkar trying their luck. The way Maharashta votes in Lok Sabha polls would act as pointer to the direction the wind is blowing ahead of the assembly elections that are due by the year end.