The recent overthrow of Sheikh Hasina's government in Bangladesh and the installation of an interim government led by Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus have raised serious questions about India's relations with its neighbors. India's 'Neighbourhood First' policy, launched with great fanfare by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has failed to yield the desired results. Instead, the country has seen five of its allies drift closer to China in the past decade. The collapse of Sheikh Hasina's government in Bangladesh has added to India's woes, raising questions about the capability of External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and the Modi government's foreign policy approach.


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India's relations with its immediate neighbours, including Pakistan, Nepal, Maldives, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and now Bangladesh, have faced significant challenges in the last few years. Of these six nations, a regime change has taken place in Maldives, Nepal, now Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Pakistan went to the elections where Shehbaz Sharif retained power by forming a coalition government. Of these, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Bangladesh now have a leadership which is pro-China. Sri Lanka also underwent a regime change following economic crisis. Lanka and Bhutan are maintaining a neutral stance towards China and India, with a slight tilt towards New Delhi are present.


The rapidly changing situation in Bangladesh has given a big blow to India, with concerns rising about the potential for Bangladesh to become a hideout for terrorists and infiltration problems in North-Eastern states.


The Bangladesh 'Failure'


Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh had been a relatively stable partner for India, helping to manage anti-India sentiments and supporting trade and border security. But with Hasina out of power and Muhammad Yunus set to lead an interim government, India now faces uncertainty. There’s worry that Bangladesh might become a hotspot for extremist activities, which could lead to increased security issues in India’s northeastern states.


The BNP, which has a rocky relationship with India, is likely to be a stakeholder in the interim government in Bangladesh. The party has used anti-India rhetoric and policies to harm Indian interests and further its domestic political goals.


The 'India Out' campaign, which gained steam in Bangladesh after the Maldives, had caused concern in New Delhi. The campaign, inspired by a similar movement in the Maldives, has led to a decline in India's relations with Bangladesh. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has rejected suggestions that India's foreign policy is failing, but the reality on the ground suggests otherwise.


Declining Relations With Immediate Neighbors


This isn’t just about Bangladesh. India’s relationships with several neighboring countries have taken a hit. In the Maldives, President Mohamed Muizzu has pushed an ‘India Out’ campaign, reflecting growing discontent with Indian influence. He’s even asked India to pull out its military personnel and signed deals with Turkey and China, showing a clear tilt away from India.


Nepal, once a close ally, has also started leaning towards China. This shift is concerning given Nepal’s strategic importance. Relations with Sri Lanka have been shaky too, and the ongoing tensions with Pakistan are no surprise. The Taliban’s rise in Afghanistan has added another layer of complication to India’s regional strategy.


What Jaishankar Says?


When questioned about India’s foreign policy and the increasing influence of China, Jaishankar acknowledged the competition but seemed to downplay concerns. “There are two realities we must recognize. China is also a neighboring country and in many ways will, as part of competitive politics, influence these countries (Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh)." The minister made this statement in response to a question during a session with students at the Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Mumbai in January this year.


He added, “I don’t think we should be scared of China. I think we should say, okay, global politics is a competitive game. You do your best, and I will do my best. China is a major economy, it will deploy resources. It will try and shape things in China’s way. Why should we expect otherwise? But the answer to that is not to complain about what China is doing. The answer is, you are doing it. Let me do better than.”


Is India's 'Neibhourhood First Policy' Actually Working?


Prime Minister Modi's tenure has been marked by a paradox in India's foreign relations. While there has been notable leadership in the Global South and engagement with major powers, relations with immediate neighbors have seen a regression. This is in spite of India's ongoing development partnerships, project acceleration, and humanitarian and technical assistance.


The subcontinent is rife with terrorism and insurgencies. India's neighbors are diverse in geography, society, economy, demography, and especially politics, with many facing chronic social and political unrest. Their significant disparities in growth, resources, population, and size compared to other regions' neighbors compound these challenges.


Modi 3.0's foreign and security policies are expected to maintain continuity, but there is room for improvement in South Asia. A more sensitive approach to India's relations with its neighbors could foster better understanding and cooperation.


The dynamics of coalition politics may prompt the BJP to moderate its Hindutva stance, which has raised concerns across South Asia, including in Bangladesh, Maldives, Pakistan, and Nepal, which transitioned from a Hindu kingdom to a secular republic.