New Delhi, Dec 02: Scientists in Bangalore have developed a new monsoon model which they claim is capable of forecasting total rainfall one year in advance in contrast to a couple of months at present. "The model could have predicted the drought of 2002 unambiguously in 2001 itself," scientists R N Iyengar and S T G Raghukanth of the Indian Institute of Science have said. None of the currently available empirical models could foreshadow the drought successfully.

The new approach, described as a "non-linear dynamic model" not only correctly estimated the all India rainfall for 2003 monsoon but is also "accounts for about 50 per cent of the variations in all India rainfall on a year-to-year basis," the scientists claim.


"The proposed model is a robust tool for statistical forecasting of monsoon rainfall," they reported in "Current Science" published by the Bangalore-based Indian Academy of Sciences.
Unlike some empirical models which require widespread sea surface temperature data, the Iyengar-Raghukanth model uses past rainfall values from year 1891. The model has to be updated every year with current data before the next year forecast may be produced.

Bureau Report