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US vehicle sales edge up in `04
Las Vegas, Feb 01: US new car and light truck sales are expected to increase this year as the economic recovery puts the pedal to the metal for the auto industry, a leading industry analyst said on Saturday.
Las Vegas, Feb 01: US new car and light truck sales are expected to increase this year as the economic recovery puts the pedal to the metal for the auto industry, a leading industry analyst said on Saturday.
Paul Taylor, chief economist at the National Automobile Dealers Association, said new vehicle sales will total about 16.8 million vehicles in 2004, up from 16.6 million in 2003.
That would still mark a decline from the all-time high of 17.4 million vehicles sold in 2000, however, a banner year for an industry that accounts for roughly one-fifth of US retail sales.
Taylor's forecast is more conservative than some estimates. But he attributed that to an expected hike in interest rates in the latter part of the year and said sales above 16.8 million vehicles were still possible, thanks at least in part to the strengthening US economy.
"There's a general consensus that we'll have strong growth this year," said Taylor, adding that US GDP is set to rise by about 4.5 percent in 2004.
The key to attaining sales at or above the 16.8 million level is the extent to which automakers are prepared to ratchet up consumer incentives and deals such as cash rebates and interest free loans to lure customers into showrooms, Taylor said. Either way, he said 2004 was shaping up to be another hyper-competitive year for the US auto industry. "It's going to be knock down, drag out competition among the manufacturers," he said.
Taylor released his forecast at a news conference on the sidelines of NADA's annual convention, which the politically powerful trade group is holding this year in Las Vegas.
In a separate report issued ahead of the meeting here, industry research firm JD Power and Associates forecast slow but steady growth in US light vehicle sales over the next five years beginning with a total of 16.9 million units in 2004.
By 2008, that should increase to 17.6 million units, JD Power forecaster Steve Goodall said.
He said the bulk of the growth would come from America's continuing love affair with gas-thirsty sport utility vehicles. Bureau Report
That would still mark a decline from the all-time high of 17.4 million vehicles sold in 2000, however, a banner year for an industry that accounts for roughly one-fifth of US retail sales.
Taylor's forecast is more conservative than some estimates. But he attributed that to an expected hike in interest rates in the latter part of the year and said sales above 16.8 million vehicles were still possible, thanks at least in part to the strengthening US economy.
"There's a general consensus that we'll have strong growth this year," said Taylor, adding that US GDP is set to rise by about 4.5 percent in 2004.
The key to attaining sales at or above the 16.8 million level is the extent to which automakers are prepared to ratchet up consumer incentives and deals such as cash rebates and interest free loans to lure customers into showrooms, Taylor said. Either way, he said 2004 was shaping up to be another hyper-competitive year for the US auto industry. "It's going to be knock down, drag out competition among the manufacturers," he said.
Taylor released his forecast at a news conference on the sidelines of NADA's annual convention, which the politically powerful trade group is holding this year in Las Vegas.
In a separate report issued ahead of the meeting here, industry research firm JD Power and Associates forecast slow but steady growth in US light vehicle sales over the next five years beginning with a total of 16.9 million units in 2004.
By 2008, that should increase to 17.6 million units, JD Power forecaster Steve Goodall said.
He said the bulk of the growth would come from America's continuing love affair with gas-thirsty sport utility vehicles. Bureau Report