Mumbai, June 09: The delay in monsoon has adversely affected the prospects of an economic recovery in the current fiscal and raised the risk of drought and water shortages, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). The economic think tank in its monthly review today said the prospects for economic recovery in 2003-04 "suffered a blow" as the south west monsoon failed to hit the Kerala coast on June one.
Rains were late as of end of first week of June, CMIE said adding the water levels in major reservoirs was only 65 per cent of the 10-year average level at the end of May 2003.
The delay in monsoon was particularly worrisome because it follows a drought year in which both the kharif and rabi seasons had witnessed falls in the foodgrain and non-food crops, CMIE said.
"The Meteorological Department has identified two out of six instances when the rains have been below normal. While this may be redeeming, the impact on the agriculture is less gratifying and production declined in five of the six instances of delayed monsoons", CMIE said.
The below normal rains in the pre-monsoon season and the delay in the onset of south-west monsoon had affected sowing of early kharif cereals and rice, it added.
The area sown under autumn rice (early kharif) was 7.5 lakh hectares till May 31, 2003 compared to 7.9 lakh hectares in the corresponding period last year, CMIE said. Bureau Report