Bhopal, Nov 13: As the Assembly election draws nearer, the debate is getting more focused as to what extent the minorities` (mainly Muslim) votes could influence the poll results.
In about one- third of the constituencies out of a total 230 in the State, Muslim votes are said to be decisive. The community has traditionally voted in favour of the Congress in the State.

Muslims constitute more than seven per cent of the State`s population (nearly 40 lakh) and are mostly concentrated in western Madhya Pradesh, Malwa region and the central region including Bhopal division.

The districts with large Muslim population include Bhopal (4.5-5 lakh), Indore (3 lakh), Shajapur (2.05 lakh), East Nimar (2.66 lakh), Jabalpur (2 lakh) Mandsaur (1.78 lakh), W Nimar (1.6 lakh), Ratlam (1.4 lakh) Dewas (1.4 lakh), Vidisha (1.3 lakh), Gwalior (1.18 lakh), Sehore (1.15), Raisen (1.1 lakh), Dhar (1 lakh), Chhindwara (one lakh).

Morena (0.95 lakh) and Sagar (0.90 lakh).The constituencies where Muslim candidates have won in the past include Bhopal North, Bhopal South, Sironj, Burhanpur, Sehore, Indore-3, Jaora, Ujjain, Satna, Khandwa, Jabalpur, Ratlam, Seoni and Tarana.

Though the number of Muslim MLAs in the assembly has never been high, some of them have made it to the house more than once. After the erstwhile Bhopal State`s merger in Madhya Pradesh in 1956, legendary communist leader Shakir Ali Khan successively won on CPI ticket.

He represented Bhopal in the assembly in 1957, 1967 and 1972 while Tarzi Mashriqi and Aziz Qureshi won from Sehore in 1962 and 1972. In 1977, Dr Hamid Qureshi (Bhopal North) won during the Janata wave followed by Rasul Ahmad Siddiqui who won in 1980.

In 1985, Rasul Ahmad and Hasnat Siddiqui won from Bhopal North and Bhopal South respectively. Arif Aqueel became an MLA in 1990. However, in 1993 not a single Muslim candidate won the assembly election in the State. The next election saw five Muslim being elected MLAs - Arif Aqueel (Bhopal North), Haji Ghulam Sibtain (Badwara), Saeed Ahmad (Satna), Mohammad Akbar (Virendra Nagar) and Badruddin Qureshi (Bhilai). The last two constituencies are now part of Chhattisgarh.

Though the Muslim representation in the state is not proportionate to their numerical strength, the power of Muslim electorate in electing the government in the State cannot be underestimated.

In fact, political observers believe that Muslim votes hold more sway in Madhya Pradesh because there are very few seats where Muslim candidates are put up and consequently there is not much polarisation on religious lines.

Traditionally, the Muslim community in the state has been voting for the Congress though in the post-1992 scenario the community got somewhat disenchanted with the party. But lack of an alternative in the state has kept the Muslims in the Congress fold.

"The Congress has done hardly anything for Muslims. Still, we will vote for the party," says Arif Hakim, lecturer with a private engineering college. "After the horrific carnage in Gujarat, the Muslims have no option but to vote for a party other than BJP that is in a position to form the government." he adds. President of the Madhya Pradesh Muslim Vikas Parishad Mohammad Mahir, advocate, feels that Muslims are inclined towards the Congress, specially Chief Minister Digivijay Singh for ensuring a riot-free ten- year rule.

"Muslims` priority is not jobs or opportunities for any other occupation, but peace. Formation of the Madarsa Board, appointment of Urdu teachers, etc have struck a sympathy chord of Muslims for Congress ", adds Mahir.

Regarding the Muslim inclination towards the Samajwadi Party (SP), Mahir says that it works in constituencies where the Congress fields weak candidates.

In Bhopal North constituency, the SP can hope to gain substantial votes as here its candidate Arif Masood, a former Youth Congress leader, provides an alternative to the Congress candidate Arif Aqueel with whom Muslims are generally unhappy. M Javed Siddiqui, an electrical engineer, residing in Railway Colony near 12 No. Stop, is clear in his mind that he will vote the SP.

(The district wise population of Muslims calculated for the year 2001 is based on projection of the 1991 census of population as per the decennial population growth).Minority votes



According to MP Minorities` Commission chairman Ibrahim Qureshi, there are 82 constituencies in the State where minorities account for more than 20 per cent votes, 121 constituencies where it is between 5-10% and the rest of the 27 seats have 2-4% minorities votes.


The constituencies with large minority votes are Bhopal North (60%), Burhanpur (50%), Bhopal South (35%), Indore-1 (35%), Indore-3 (30%), Ujjain North (35%), Jabalpur Central (35%), Khandwa (25%), Ratlam (25%), Jaora (22%), Lashkar West (20%), Jabalpur East, Kurwai, Narsinghgarh, Sironj, Khategaon, Dewas, Budhni, Shujalpur (18% each), Shajapur, Mandla, Neemuch, Maheedpur, Mandsaur, Indore-5, Nasrullahgunj, Icchawar, Ashta, Ujjain South, (16% each), Govindpura, Sarangpur, Mungaoli (15% each), Surkhi-Rahatgarh, Chhindwara, Mhow, Vidisha, Guna, Bhind and Ashok Nagar (14% each).

"All the divisions save for Gwalior have sent Muslim candidates to the Assembly in the past", Qureshi adds. Interestingly, Khairlanji has 55% minority votes but mostly Buddhists.

The number of Muslim voters has increased since the last Assembly elections owing to the efforts of the Madhya Pradesh Muslim Education Society towards registration of Muslim voters. Bureau Report