IIT Kanpur study says `4th Covid-19 wave to hit in July`, Centre yet to examine

NITI Aayog Member (Health) VK Paul said that the government will examine the scientific worth of the IIT Kanpur study on the fourth Covid-19 wave.

New Delhi: After IIT-Kanpur study predicted that a fourth Covid-19 wave will hit in July this year, the Centre on Thursday (March 3) said it is yet to examine whether the report has scientific worth or not.

Addressing a press conference in Delhi, NITI Aayog Member (Health) VK Paul said that the government views the IIT Kanpur study with respect as it is produced by eminent people. 

“...It has been our endeavour to look at science of the pandemic, its epidemiology, trend and virology. All projections are based on data and assumptions and we have seen divergent estimates from time to time. They are sometimes so divergent that decisions based on just a set of projections will be very unsafe for the society. The government looks at these estimates with due respect because these are scientific works produced by eminent people," PTI quoted him as saying. 

Paul emphasised that the government will examine the scientific worth of the study. "We saw the news item and found out that this project is carried out by a group in a particular institution. We would like to see it published in a peer reviewed journal. We should be carefully watching the assumption that has been used. Only on a single estimate or projection, one is not taking any decision of significance. We value it as an input. Whether it has a scientific worth and mathematical underpinning will be examined," NITI Aayog Member said. 

Led by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar, and Shalabh of IIT Kanpur's Department of Mathematics and Statistics, the IIT Kanpur study said the fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in India is likely to hit around June 22 and last for four months. 

The study, which remains to be peer-reviewed, recently published on the preprint repository MedRxiv, has used a statistical model to make the prediction and found that the possible new wave will peak from mid to late August.

The researchers said that the severity of the fourth wave will depend on the emergence of a possible new coronavirus variant and vaccination status across the country. 

(With PTI inputs)