Fourth wave of Covid-19 may not have earlier impact, here's why

NEW DELHI: While the Covid-19 situation looks fully under control in view of fast-declining new cases of coronavirus infection, a recent study has warned that the fourth wave may set in around June 22 in the country. 

The study has been conducted by the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur (IIT-K) researchers, who predicted that India is likely to witness the fourth covid-19 wave in mid to late June, and the surge is to continue for about 4 months. 

However, top health experts have suggested that the impact of the possible fourth Covid-19 wave may not be as severe as the previous ones. They said that the severity of the fourth Covid wave will depend on the emergence of new variants, vaccination status, and administration of booster doses.

Health experts believe that due to the fast-paced mass vaccination programme in the country and increasing awareness, it would be easier to deal with the upcoming wave of the Covid-19.

As of Tuesday, more than 177.67 crore COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the country, according to the Union Health Ministry. The Ministry also said that more than 2 crore precaution doses have been given to healthcare and frontline workers and comorbid people aged 60 and above.

The countrywide vaccination drive was rolled out on January 16 last year with healthcare workers getting inoculated in the first phase. Inoculation of frontline workers started on February 2. The next phase of COVID-19 vaccination commenced from March 1 for people over 60 years of age and those aged 45 and above with specified co-morbid conditions.

The country launched vaccination for all people aged more than 45 years from April 1. The government then decided to expand its vaccination drive by allowing everyone above 18 to be vaccinated from May 1.

The next phase of COVID-19 vaccination commenced from January 3 for adolescents in the age group of 15-18 years. India began administering precaution dose of COVID-19 vaccine to healthcare and frontline workers and those aged 60 and above with comorbidities from January 10. 

What do the IIT researchers say?

The research was led by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh of IIT Kanpur's Mathametic department using a mixture of Gaussian distribution based on the data on Zimbabwe. This IIT-K study has been published as a pre-print in MedRxiv and is yet to be peer-reviewed.

According to the researchers, the data indicates that the fourth wave of Covid-19 in India will arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020. 

“Therefore, the fourth wave starts from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022 and ends on October 24, 2022," they said.  “Moreover, the 99% confidence interval for the date, when the curve will reach the peak, is approximately from August 15, 2022 to August 31, 2022," the researchers added.

How severe will be this wave? 

The study said that there is a good chance that a new variant of coronavirus may emerge and can have an intense impact on the whole analysis. “The intensity of the impact will depend on various factors like infectibility, fatality etc,” the authors said. The authors also highlighted that the effect of vaccinations - first, second or booster dosage can also play a significant role in the possibility of infection.