Karnataka Assembly Elections 2023: 6 Key Factors That Would Impact Voters' Choice

The ABP-CVoter survey, Karnataka's first opinion poll for the 2023 assembly elections, predicted a decisive victory for Congress. The election is set to take place on May 10. While the Congress hopes to ride an anti-incumbency wave, the BJP hopes to break Karnataka's trend of not repeating a government since 1980.

 

The ABP-CVoter poll predicted a Congress victory, with the BJP coming in second. According to the poll, the Congress is expected to win 115-127 seats, while the BJP is expected to win 68-80. With a seat range of 23-35, JD(S) has the potential to be the deciding factor. JD(S) has never established a government on its own since its foundation. It did, however, form coalition administrations with the BJP in 2006 and the Congress in 2018.

According to the ABP-CVoter poll, religious polarisation is the most important issue on voters' minds. The BJP appears to have recognised this factor. With BS Yediyurappa, who has the support of the Lingayat community, facing severe resistance from numerous party officials, the BJP is attempting to strike the proper balance. While it made Yediyurappa its election mascot, it eliminated the 2% reservation for Muslims in the state's backward classes under the 2B category, reallocating the quota to the Vokkaligas and Lingayats under the 2C and 2D categories.

Both the Congress and the BJP are expected to suffer from factionalism. While Yediyurappa faces stiff opposition from party colleagues, Siddaramaiah appears to be locked in a direct battle with state unit chief DK Shivakumar. Shivakumar and party president in the state DK Shivakumar were viewed as serious contenders for the CM face in the Congress. The ABP-CVoter poll, on the other hand, placed Siddaramaiah as the top option, exceeding even BJP contenders. 

The third element that could work both for and against the BJP is alleged misgovernance. As shown by the ABP-CVoter survey, the BJP government has been afflicted by various governance challenges in the areas of Covid management, urban development, and corruption, giving birth to a sense of anti-incumbency. The Congress may consider capitalising on this opportunity to launch various anti-government initiatives, such to the "PayCM" and "40% government" campaigns. Any impact of these campaigns will undoubtedly worry the ruling party.

The image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the state would be the next consideration. While Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai has fallen short of voters' expectations, according to the ABP-CVoter poll, PM Modi's image remains largely intact. Although the majority of survey respondents preferred that CM Bommai not remain in office, they were pleased with the Centre under PM Modi.

The trinity of Siddaramaiah, Yediyurappa, and HD Deve Gowda, and, by extension, his son HD Kumaraswamy, is the most crucial factor. The three have been immensely influential in Karnataka politics and are well-known alliance builders in the state. While Siddaramaiah emerged as the clear favorite to be the next Chief Minister in the ABP-CVoter poll, Yediyurappa will be critical for the BJP, as the party discovered the hard way after his brief exit in 2012.