As the campaign in Afghanistan 'degrades' into a quagmire for US troops, India -- like Russia and Iran -- will become increasingly important to Washington's strategic planning, according to a forecast by a reputed US consulting firm on geopolitics.
''New Delhi is counting on this and at the same time reminding Washington of its importance in order to avoid the re-emergence of a strong, US-backed Pakistan on its border,'' the Texas-based Strategic Forecasting (Stratfor) said. To improve its leverage with the United States, India – besides drawing attention to Pakistan's historic ties with the Taliban and the Kashmir militants -- has also turned to Moscow for support, it said. Russia -- a key component of the US coalition against terror -- also faces problems from Islamic extremists in Chechnya.
By leaning towards Russia, India also hopes to stir Washington to quick action to prevent closer Moscow-New Delhi ties that ultimately could weaken US influence in south and Central Asia, Stratfor said. ''Moscow has been seemingly happy to oblige, offering to represent New Delhi's opinions in talks with Washington and to push for India's inclusion in any ultimate discussions of Afghanistan's future.''
Russia has already backed India's position that the US is adopting double standards in differentiating Pakistan-based ultras in Kashmir and other insurgents, Stratfor said quoting Russian President Vladmir Putin's recent statement that ''there cannot be good and bad terrorists.''
To seal its ties with India, Moscow has promised to deliver the first batch of advanced T-90 tanks in November to be deployed in the north and the west opposite Pakistan, Stratfor said.
Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee met with President George W Bush armed with Russia's moral support and the imminent delivery of T-90s, it added.
Bureau Report