New Delhi, Apr 19: The government has began the exercise for drawing up an economic survey and Exim policy, even though they will be presented by the new government that assumes office after elections in May. The preparation for the Union Budget for ’04-05, is however, expected to start only after the new finance minister takes charge at North Block, official sources said. “There will be a proper economic survey and the preparation has already started, despite the fact that it will be presented by the new government,” they said.

Indications are that the survey will paint a rosy picture of the economy in the backdrop of the 10.4% growth in GDP during October-December ’03, and an estimated 8.1% in ’03-04, coupled with a less than 5% inflation rate, forex reserves at an all-time high of $112bn, a fiscal deficit of less than 4.8% of the GDP and robust exports growth. The NDA government presented an Interim Budget in February this year, as it decided to go for early polls. As there was no full budget, finance minister Jaswant Singh chose not to table the economic survey, as is usual, a few days ahead of the Interim Budget, outlining the strategy and economic performance of the government.

Regarding the Export-Import policy, sources said there was a need to fine-tune the trade policies in the face of the sharp appreciation of the rupee against the dollar, which has hit exporters hard. The government had already come up with a “mini Exim policy” in January, but some of the policy thrusts needed to boost exports will be reflected in the forthcoming exim policy expected in June.

With exporters demanding an early action to tide over the difficult situation arising out of an over 9.5% rise in the rupee vis-a-vis the dollar in the last 12 months, the commerce ministry appears keen to take up the matter with the finance ministry and the Reserve Bank of India. Despite a rise in the rupee, exports showed a whopping 41.8% growth in the last month, pushing up the overall growth to 17% at over $60bn last fiscal. The export growth target for ’04-05, however, will be fixed only after the policy framework is put in place by the new government.

The finance minister has already indicated that there will be a reduction in tax and tariff rates if the NDA is voted back to power. This is despite the fact that Mr Singh had slashed peak customs duties from 25% to 20% on a number of items like steel, capital goods, telecom and electricals products. Bureau Report