Assembly elections results 2017: Here are the key takeaways

The unprecedented outcome of several weeks of exhaustive electioneering by top political players in five states - Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur – the results of which were announced on Saturday, has yet again proved that the Indian democracy is vibrant and thriving.

While the Narendra Modi-powered BJP got a thumping majority in Uttar Pradesh – one of India's most electorally crucial states – and snatched Uttarakhand from Congress, it suffered a drubbing in Punjab where its alliance with SAD was voted out of power.

While a close contest was seen between BJP and Congress in Goa and Manipur, the biggest highlights of these polls were the stunning defeat of the Congress and Samajwadi Party alliance engineered by Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav, the voters' rejections of Arvind Kejiwal's AAP which had made tall claims of victory in Goa and Punjab. The results have also completely shattered BSP chief Mayawati's hopes to make a comeback in Uttar Pradesh and her party now faces an existential threat. Though, it lost in Uttarakhand and UP, victory in Punjab came as a breather for Rahul Gandhi-led Congress which managed to save its government in Manipur and gave a tough fight to BJP in Goa.

But, in all probability, the results showed that voters in almost all states voted for anti-incumbency. Here are the key takeaways from the closely contested Assembly elections 2017:-

Narendra Modi is still the biggest mascot of BJP

Call it the 'Modi wave' or the 'saffron wave', the BJP won a historic mandate in UP this time, which ended decades of its political drought in the SP-ruled state. Though all exits polls had projected the BJP as a major winner in UP, the saffron brigade too had not thought that the margin of its victory here would be so big. The highly encouraging results in UP reflect the 2014 Lok Sabha battle, which the BJP won by a brute majority.

That too, when the party didn't project a chief ministerial candidate, and PM Modi was attacked for his 'Shamshan vs Kabristan' remarks and his over-the-board campaigning in his Lok Sabha constituency – Varanasi – in the last phase of elections. BJP's impressive win in UP has proved that 'Modi magic' continues in Uttar Pradesh and the 'Brand Modi' has now become much stronger than ever. For the saffron brigade, which started its winning streak with the 2014 Lok Sabha polls in which the party and its ally Apna Dal won 73 out of 80 seats, PM Modi remains the most saleable and bankable leader who has the potential and the 'charisma' to win coming elections.

Thumbs up for demonetisation

Whatever one may say but the outcome of the 2017 assembly elections are indeed a referendum on the Narendra Modi government's economic reforms agenda. Remember, PM Modi was severely criticised for his unprecedented decision to scrap old currency notes of high denomination in November last year. Many leading political leaders including Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav, Arvind Kejriwal, Lalu Prasad Yadav had made a scathing attack on PM Modi over his demonetisation move, arguing that it would sink BJP’s chances in the coming polls.

Further cashing in on the initial hardship faced by the countrymen and the frequent rule changes by the RBI, a united Opposition slammed the PM for taking decisions unilaterally. Although, the impact of demonetisation on Indian economy is yet to assessed in the long term, the results prove otherwise. The note ban move appears to have worked in favour of BJP, which has tasted success in by-elections held in several states, the civic polls across Maharashtra, and now, the assembly polls in five states.

UP rejects Akhilesh-Rahul 'dosti'

By now, the critics of PM Narendra Modi must have got the answer whether UP like this friendship between Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi. Though Akhilesh Yadav - the dynamic young chief minister of Uttar Pradesh – finally emerged victorious in the bitter power struggle in his family by gaining full control of his party, he failed to woo voters in UP. Despite stiff opposition from his father and SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav, Akhilesh went ahead and stitched an electoral alliance with Rahul Gandhi-led Congress with an aim to defeat BJP in UP.

The two young leaders, who projected themselves as 'UP ke ladke' and labelled PM Modi as an ''outsider'' as they aggressively campaigned together in UP, miserably failed to feel the pulse of state's voters. In a hurry to join hands with Congress, Akhilesh compromised too many winnable seats to Congress. Despite several attempts to project Rahul-Akhilesh as inseparable friends, the chemistry between the grass root workers of the two parties was not as good as their leaders. What further dealt a blow to the alliance is the fact that traditional Congress votes were not transferred to the SP as much as it was expected. Though Akhilesh Yadav's personal popularity remains intact, he is likely to face a tough time after his party's humiliating defeat as the rival camp in SP led by his uncle Shivpal Yadav and backed his father will certainly question his political acumen now.

Anti-incumbency

One important aspect of this year's assembly elections has been the fact that voters in most states except Manipur voted for anti-incumbency. Barring Ikram Ibobi Singh in Manipur, people voted against the ruling party or alliance in Punjab where SAD-BJP alliance was defeated, Uttar Pradesh where ruling Samajwadi Party was rejected and, Uttarakhand where Congress was voted out of power. As outcome of polls in Punjab has been on expected lines in view of rising anger against the Badals for their dismal performance in the last ten years and serious allegations of corruption against them. But, the only silver lining for the SAD-BJP combine is the fact that the margin of its defeat here is not as big as it was predicted. In UP, where the campaign managers of Akhilesh Yadav had coined the slogan 'kaam bolta hai', the results are a ''monumental setback'' to the young chief minister who is fighting against all odds to establish himself as the sole leader of the Samajwadi Party. Similarly, the Congress government in Uttarakhand led by Harish Rawat was too voted out of power due to infighting, corruption and defection of its top leaders to BJP which registered a massive win.

Social engineering by Amit Shah

Apart from the Modi factor, the credit for BJP's electoral success also goes to its party chief Amit Shah's social engineering formula. Shah – known as the 'Chanakya' of BJP – managed to forge successful broad coalition of castes in UP. From appointing Kesav Prasad Maurya as state chief to inducting former BSP strongman Swami Prasad Maurya in the party fold and by not declaring a CM candidate – Shah managed to win support of all castes and communities to keep the poll arithmetic in BJP's favour. In order to defeat the caste factor, Shah turned the UP election as "3 versus the others". The UP election was projected as a fight between SP's Muslim-Yadav combination and BSP's Jatavs vs other castes, which were supposed to vote for the BJP. Working on this strategy, the BJP allocated around 150 seats to non-Yadav OBCs in UP. The BJP's alliance with regional parties like Apna Dal and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party(SBSP) further helped it consolidate non-Yadav OBC caste groups like the Patels, the Kurmis and the Rajbhars.

Tactical voting by Muslims

Muslim voters in Uttar Pradesh could have voted in significant numbers for the BJP endorsing its stand on issues like women’s rights. Muslims are known for tactical voting, but this time it appears the community has voted for issues. Though BJP was criticised for not fielding any Muslim candidate, what could have possibly worked in favour of the saffron party is its stand on Triple Talaq issue in Supreme Court where it stated that it violates fundamental rights of Muslim women.

Interestingly all parties – BJP, SP, Congress and BSP – tried to woo the Muslim voters. The BSP gave almost 100 seats to Muslims and SP- Congress alliance was too forged with an eye on minority votes. The BJP, too, played the Hindutva card after PM Modi's 'Kabristan vs Shamshan' remarks and Amit Shah' 'KASAB' jibes as part of its strategy to highlight the opposition's aggressive push for Muslim votes.