Gujarat poll results: AAP looks to breach BJP`s bastion, emerge as principal challenger of the saffron party

Gujarat Assembly poll results: During the election campaign, the AAP positioned itself and its national convenor Kejriwal as the sole challenger of the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi respectively.

New Delhi: As the counting of votes polled in the Gujarat Assembly elections begins, the outcome will determine the fate of the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party's national ambition. The party has fielded its candidate on all 182 assembly seats and carried out a high-decibel campaign in the run-up to the polls to breach the BJP's Gujarat bastion. During the election campaign, the AAP positioned itself and its national convenor Kejriwal as the sole challenger of the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi respectively. The results of the high-stakes polls in Modi's home state will determine whether the AAP could successfully elbow out the Congress as number two in the tally and emerge as the principal challenger of the BJP. 

If the AAP manages to achieve this feat, it will also determine the role that Kejriwal would play in stopping the Modi juggernaut in 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Already recognised as the state party in Delhi, Punjab and Goa, the AAP is just a state away from earning national party status. Notably, for earning a national party status, a political outfit needs to be recognized in at least four states and to be recognised as a state party, it needs to win at least two seats and 6 per cent of votes polled in the Assembly election. 

AAP needs to win just two seats and secure 6 per cent of votes in Thursday's voting to get a national party tag, thereby, boosting its national ambition. 

The Exit Polls, released Monday, predicted BJP winning big in Gujarat -- 117 to 151 seats in the 182-member legislative Assembly -- and placed the main opposition Congress at the second spot, winning 16 to 51 seats, while the AAP is seen finishing third, with a seat tally that could range between 2 to 13. Despite dismal numbers in the Exit Polls, the AAP appears to have gained traction in Gujarat and this will obviously open new political territory for the Arvind Kejriwal-led party.  

It may be noted here that the AAP has witnessed a spectacular win in the civic body elections in Delhi, where the AAP unseated BJP, winning 134 of the 250 wards of the Municipal Corporation of Delhi that went to polls on December 4. The BJP, which had controlled the MCD for 15 long years, could win only 104 wards, according to votes counted on Wednesday. 

"The AAP may win around 12 seats -- 2-3 in Surat, 7-8 in Saurashtra, two in the tribal belt, and a few surprises here and there in the north and central Gujarat," Dilip Gohil, a political analyst based in Ahmedabad, told PTI. 

"The AAP is hoping to win more seats than what has been projected by the exit polls and political analysts. Poll results will prove all the exit polls wrong on December 8," AAP Gujarat unit's chief spokesperson Yogesh Jadvani asserted when asked for his comment. 

Referring to an internal assessment of the party carried out on a daily basis at booth levels across Gujarat, Jadvani reportedly claimed that AAP will win more than 45 seats out of a total of 89 which went to polls in the first phase on December 1. "We are winning 6 seats in Surat and more than 30 seats in Saurashtra," he told PTI, adding, "We are yet to analyse the data collected from the remaining seats."

Riding high on its historic victory in the Punjab Assembly polls earlier this year, the Arvind Kejriwal-led party launched its foray into BJP-ruled Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh as part of its national expansion plan. 

Although the AAP fielded its candidates for all Assembly seats in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, it has kept its prime focus on PM Modi's home state where it has been able to build a few strongholds in recent years. The party gained ground in the BJP-ruled Gujarat after it won 27 seats in the 2021 Surat Municipal Corporation elections. The Congress, which had 36 councillors, lost all the seats in the civic body election. 

Seeking to expand its footprint, the AAP plans to contest in most of the states going to polls next year. That includes Congress-ruled Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan and BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. The party also plans contest elections in Jammu and Kashmir, likely to be held early next year.

As the counting of votes began for the Assembly elections, the BJP is leading in both Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat, as per the latest trends.

The counting began in Gujarat across 37 centres amid tight security at 8 am. In the 2017 general elections in Gujarat, 2,94,64,326 votes were polled with a voter turnout of 68.39 per cent. Of this BJP had polled 1,47,24,031 with a vote share of 49.05 per cent and had won 99 seats. The Congress had polled 1,24,37,661 votes with a vote share of 41.44 per cent and 77 seats.

In Himachal Pradesh, the high-stake election was held on November 12, sealing the electoral fate of 412 candidates, including 24 women. A 75.60 per cent voter turnout was recorded, breaking the 2017 record of 75.57 per cent. The counting of votes began at 8 am at 68 centres in 59 locations in Himachal Pradesh.

(With PTI/IANS Inputs)