Haryana Election Results 2024: Key Factors That Helped BJP Avert Congress Resurgence

In the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to form the government for the third consecutive term, defying exit poll predictions of a Congress win. As results pour in, the BJP is leading in over 48 seats, surpassing its 2019 performance when it secured 40 seats and had to rely on an alliance with the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP). Here are five key factors that contributed to the BJP’s strong performance in this election.

Smart Candidate Selection

The BJP's approach to candidate selection was another factor that worked in its favour. The party introduced 60 fresh faces in an effort to combat anti-incumbency and replaced several sitting MLAs, including former Chief Minister Khattar, who was seen as distant and unapproachable.

Saini, with his grassroots appeal, was seen as a more relatable leader. In contrast, Congress re-nominated 17 candidates who had previously lost elections, including its state president Udai Bhan. Additionally, BJP strategically used the perception that Congress would again appoint Bhupinder Hooda, a Jat leader, as Chief Minister, which alienated non-Jat voters who feared that opportunities would be concentrated in Hooda's stronghold of Rohtak.

Fragmented Opposition

The fragmented nature of the opposition also worked to the BJP’s advantage. Unlike the Lok Sabha elections, where opposition parties tried to present a united front, in Haryana, Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) contested separately. Further division came from alliances like that between the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), as well as between the JJP and the Azad Samaj Party. The entry of numerous independent candidates further split the anti-BJP vote, allowing the ruling party to clinch several constituencies where the opposition vote was divided.

Non-Jat Votes

A major part of BJP’s strategy since 2014 has been focusing on consolidating non-Jat votes, which make up about 75% of Haryana’s population. Traditionally, the state has seen chief ministers from the upper-caste Jat community, which forms around 25% of the population.

However, the BJP broke from this pattern by appointing Manohar Lal Khattar, a Punjabi Khatri, as Chief Minister in 2014 and later Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC leader, as his replacement in 2024. Saini’s early confirmation as the CM candidate helped the party gain significant support from the OBC community, which comprises 40% of the state’s electorate. This focus on non-Jat voters was crucial in securing the BJP’s lead.

Focus on Development 

The BJP’s emphasis on development and welfare schemes played a major role in swaying voters. Months before the election campaign began in earnest, the BJP launched its "Modi ki Guarantee" campaign, where specially designed vans travelled to villages, promoting government schemes and helping residents rectify issues with their Parivar Pehchan Patras (family identity cards).

The party also highlighted its success in Direct Benefit Transfers (DBTs), claiming to have ensured that benefits directly reached beneficiaries’ bank accounts without middlemen. Additionally, the development in key areas along the GT Road, from Ambala to Delhi, where 25 seats are located, was a significant factor that earned the party support in these constituencies.

Robust Campaign Efforts

The BJP's extensive campaign efforts were another key factor in its success. The party held over 150 rallies, with many addressed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. In comparison, the Congress managed only around 70 rallies.

BJP’s campaign messaging focused on the party’s development initiatives, disciplined governance, and promises of continued progress, contrasting sharply with Congress's focus on agrarian issues and socialist rhetoric.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s pitch, which emphasized farmers' concerns and criticized industrialists, may not have resonated well with business communities and aspirational voters in the state, further weakening Congress's appeal.