Decoding The Impact Of Omar Abdullah, Mehbooba Mufti's Big Election Loss On Kashmir Politics

J&K Lok Sabha Elections: The results were surprising as the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) won 2 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured 2 seats, and an Independent candidate clinched 1 seat.

Jammu And Kashmir Election Results: The 2024 Lok Sabha elections have brought about a significant shift in the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir. The results were surprising as the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) won 2 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured 2 seats, and an Independent candidate clinched 1 seat. In the Srinagar constituency, JKNC's Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi emerged victorious. In contrast, Omar Abdullah of JKNC lost in the Baramulla constituency to Independent candidate Abdul Rashid Sheikh. In the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency, Mian Altaf Ahmad of JKNC defeated Mehbooba Mufti of the Jammu and Kashmir People's Democratic Party (JKPDP).

The BJP also made its presence felt with Jitendra Singh and Jugal Kishore winning the Udhampur and Jammu constituencies, respectively. The defeat of Abdullah and Mufti indicates a shift in the political landscape of Kashmir, hinting at the need for these parties to reassess their strategies and reconnect with the aspirations of the youth.

As India gears up for the future, the regional parties in J&K must learn from this electoral setback. They need to align themselves with the changing dynamics of the electorate and focus on issues that resonate with the youth. Only then can they hope to regain their lost ground and play a significant role in shaping the future of Kashmir politics.

Though some had predicted Engineer Abdul Rashid, the leader of the jailed Awami Ittihad Party (AIP), would win on election day, the results came as a huge surprise on counting day. The powerful National Conference operatives were unable to break through what political pundits refer to as "the sympathy wave" in the voter base for Er. Rashid.

Based on the unprecedented turnout in the parliamentary polls, significantly higher turnout is anticipated in the upcoming assembly elections. In the assembly elections, every party—including the NC, BJP, PDP, Congress, and the BJP's like-minded parties—must be on the correct path. If not, anybody can win the assembly polls. 

Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti's defeat is a huge consolation for the BJP and its like-minded parties. They are portraying the losses as a rejection of Kashmir's dynastic politics. But for different reasons, the NC and PDP do not share this opinion.

By choosing to run from the Baramulla seat rather than Srinagar, where he had previously won multiple elections, Omar Abdullah took a significant political gamble. For him, everything in Baramulla was going well, but later on, the Engineer Rashid wave nearly took the entire constituency.

NC fielded former minister and well-known Gujjar leader Mian Altaf Ahmad in the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency after realising that it contained sizable populations of Gujjar, Bakerwal, and Pahari communities. The strategy proved to be highly effective, and party leaders in Kulgam and Anantnag were crucial to his triumph. The voters in the areas, which were thought to be PDP strongholds, did not provide Mehbooba with the expected support.