DNA Exclusive: BJP vs Congress vs AAP - who will win the battle for Uttarakhand?

Zee News Editor-in-Chief Sudhir Chaudhary, in his highly popular prime time show DNA aired on January 17, 2022, sought to analyse the outcome of the opinion poll and what could be the likely scenario after the votes are actually cast in Uttarakhand.

NEW DELHI: Zee News has conducted one of the biggest opinion polls ever in the history of India and tried to capture the mood of voters in the five poll-bound states – Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Manipur and Punjab.

This opinion poll was jointly conducted by Zee News in association with Design Boxed which is a political campaign management company, which has a long experience of conducting opinion polls. In terms of sample size, this is also the largest opinion poll ever conducted in the history of India.

During this exercise, the feedback and responses from more than 12 lakh people from 690 assembly seats in the five states going to the polls were collected. There are about 60 lakh voters in Uttarakhand, and going by that size, the Zee News poll reached out to one out of every 150 voters in the state.

Through this massive opinion poll, Zee News tried to catch the voters’ pulse in order to understand the likely outcome of the intense electoral battle in these states. In this series, it first released the opinion poll predictions for the hill state.

Zee News Editor-in-Chief Sudhir Chaudhary, in his highly popular prime time show DNA aired on January 17, 2022, sought to further analyse the results of the opinion poll and the likely scenario after the votes are actually cast in Uttarakhand. 

The opinion poll appears to suggest that Congress veteran Harish Rawat is the still most-favoured CM candidate with nearly 41 per cent of respondents favouring him for the top post. Rawat has been the Chief Minister of Uttarakhand thrice between 2014 and 2017. Despite infighting within the Congress and dissent over ticket distribution, he has emerged as the first choice for the Chief Minister’s chair.

While the incumbent Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami is second on this list. Only 27 per cent of those covered in the opinion poll have favoured him as the CM. Though Dhami took charge as Uttarakhand CM nearly 6 months back, he is clearly far behind his Congress rival in terms of popularity and people’s support.

Anil Baluni of BJP is third in this list with the support of 15 per cent of people and Colonel Ajay Kothiyal of Aam Aadmi Party is the choice of 9 per cent people for the post of Chief Minister.

In the 2017 elections, BJP got an absolute majority in Uttarakhand. But despite that, the saffron party could not form a stable government. Between 2017 and 2022, BJP has changed three chief ministers in five years. First Trivendra Singh Rawat was made the Chief Minister, then Tirath Singh Rawat occupied the chair. But after three months, he was also removed and Pushkar Singh Dhami took over the reins from him. This frequent change of guard seems to have dented BJP’s image a lot in Uttarakhand. 

According to the Zee News-Design Boxed opinion poll, 23 per cent of the people said that unemployment is the biggest issue in the assembly election in Uttarakhand. Uttarakhand ranks 10th in the list of 28 states and 8 union territories in terms of unemployment. Besides this, according to a survey, every third person in Uttarakhand is unemployed. Therefore, no party can ignore this issue if it aims to win the popular mandate.

As a state, Uttarakhand is divided into two main regions - Garhwal and Kumaun. In the 41 seats of the Garhwal region, BJP is likely to secure around 43 per cent of the total vote share, while Congress is likely to get 38 per cent. At the same time, Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party is likely to bag 14 per cent of the total vote share while 5 per cent will go to the other parties.

In Garhwal, the ruling BJP is expected to win somewhere between 22-24 (23) seats. Congress is way behind the ruling BJP here, and the party appears to be getting between 15-17 (16) seats. AAP and others may get one seat each here. Talking about the entire state, the ruling BJP can win between 31-35 (33) seats, Congress 33-37 (35), AAP 0-2 (1) and others 0-1 (1).

In Garhwal, Congress veteran Harish Rawat has emerged as the most-favoured CM candidate with 43% of people voting in his favour. At the same time, 23% of people have favoured incumbent CM Pushkar Singh Dhami. He is closely followed by Anil Baluni with 17% and Col Ajay Kothiyal (AAP) with 8% votes, according to the Zee News opinion poll.

Talking about the vote percentage in 29 assembly segments of the Kumaun region, Congress is leading in terms of vote percentage here with 42 % vote share followed by BJP with 38 per cent, AAP 10 per cent vote while others are also likely to get around 10% vote share in the region.

Now talking about assembly seats in Kumaun, BJP is expected to win between 9-11 (10) seats here. Congress is expected to win between 18-20 (19) seats. Others are likely to get 0-1 (0) seats in the region.

In 2017, out of 70 seats in Uttarakhand, BJP got 57 seats while Congress managed to win 11. Two seats were won by independent candidates. But according to the Zee News opinion poll, BJP appears to be wining between 31 to 35 seats this time. 

Congress, on the other hand, looks like winning between 33 to 37 seats. That is, Congress seems to be getting the maximum number of seats. Aam Aadmi Party is expected to win zero to 2 seats. While the others are likely to get zero to one seat.

Another worrying factor for the ruling BJP is that its vote share is also likely to decline this time in Uttarakhand. In 2017, BJP got around 46.51 per cent votes and Congress secured 33.49 per cent votes. Others got 20 per cent of the votes. 

But this time, the picture looks gloomy for the BJP. Its overall vote share is expected to come down by 7 per cent to 39 per cent. On the other hand, Congress is likely to increase its vote share by 7 per cent to 40 per cent. Amid all this, the Aam Aadmi Party is expected to fetch around 12 per cent and others 9 per cent of the total votes.