Turkey-Syria Earthquake: Decade's Deadliest Quake Expected to Claim Ten Thousand Lives

Turkey-Syria Earthquake: The magnitude 7.8 earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria on Monday is likely to be one of the deadliest this decade. Here is what happened beneath the earth's surface and what to expect in the aftermath.

As of writing this report, the number of people killed in the terrible earthquake that hit Turkey-Syria has exceeded 4000. The magnitude 7.8 earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria on Monday is likely to be one of the deadliest this decade, seismologists said, with a more than 100 km (62 miles) rupture between the Anatolian and Arabian plates. Here is what happened beneath the earth's surface and what to expect in the aftermath.

Turkey Earthquake: The Epicentre

The epicentre was about 26 km east of the Turkish city of Nurdagi at a depth of about 18 km on the East Anatolian Fault. The quake radiated towards the northeast, bringing devastation to central Turkey and Syria. During the 20th century, the East Anatolian Fault yielded little major seismic activity. "If we were going simply by (major) earthquakes that were recorded by seismometers, it would look more or less blank," said Roger Musson, an honorary research associate at the British Geological Survey. Only three earthquakes have registered above 6.0 on the Richter Scale since 1970 in the area, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. But in 1822, a 7.0 quake hit the region, killing an estimated 20,000 people.

Turkey Earthquake: Deadliest Of the Decade

On average, there are fewer than 20 quakes over 7.0 magnitude in any year, making Monday's event severe. Compared with the 6.2 earthquake that hit central Italy in 2016 and killed some 300 people, the Turkey-Syria earthquake released 250 times as much energy. Only two of the deadliest earthquakes from 2013 to 2022 were of the same magnitude as Monday's quake.

Turkey Earthquake: Why So Severe?

The East Anatolian Fault is a strike-slip fault. In those, solid rock plates are pushing up against each other across a vertical fault line, building stress until one finally slips in a horizontal motion, releasing a tremendous amount of strain that can trigger an earthquake. The San Andreas Fault in California is perhaps the world's most famous strike-slip fault, with scientists warning that a catastrophic quake is long overdue. The initial rupture for the Turkey-Syria earthquake kicked off at a relatively shallow depth.

Turkey Earthqquake: The Aftershocks Expected

Eleven minutes after the initial quake, the region was hit by a 6.7-magnitude aftershock. A 7.5-magnitude quake came hours later, followed by another 6.0 spasm in the afternoon. According the the experts, the activity is now spreading to neighbouring faults. Therefore, this seismicity to continue for a while. After the deadly 1822 event, aftershocks carried on into the following year.

Turkey Earthquake: Final Death Toll

Earthquakes of similar magnitudes in populated areas have killed thousands of people. Nepal's 7.8-magnitude earthquake in 2015 claimed nearly 9,000 lives. Therefore, the Turkey-Syria earthquake is expected to kill thousands, and could be in the tens of thousands. Cold winter weather, means that people trapped under rubble have less chance at survival.