Chinese incursions across India border strategically planned: Study

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Chinese incursions across its border with India are not random incidents that happen incidentally but these are planned incursions to gain permanent control of disputed border areas, according to a new study published in the journal PLOS ONE. Since the 2020 Galwan clash, the border issue has remained the dominant issue between the neighbours. India and China have had several rounds of diplomatic and military level meetings on the situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

India has repeatedly emphasized that India-China relations cannot be normal unless the border situation is and added that if China disturbs the peace and tranquillity in border areas, it will impact the relations further.

How China intrudes on Indian border 

A new study titled, "Rising tension in the Himalayas: A geospatial analysis of Chinese border incursions into India," has shed light on how China intrudes on the Indian border area.

"We assembled a data set on incursions along the LAC that were reported in the media. From our analysis we conclude that Chinese incursions in the west and in the east are independent," said the study published on November 10 in the journal PLOS ONE.

It argued that militarily, the west and east can be seen as two different conflicts. "Furthermore, the Chinese incursions do not seem to be random encounters, but are strategically planned in line with the optimal play in a Blotto game," the study said while adding "the fluctuation of the tension (the number of yearly incursions) appears to be in sync in the west and the east."According to the research, tensions rise after major skirmishes or standoffs, which occur in the most contested six red zones in the western sector including Depsang, Pangong, and Doklam. "Such standoffs are followed by bilateral talks to avoid further escalation of the conflict," the study added.

India should step up its presence in red zones

The study suggests that India should step up its presence in the red zones and counter the Chinese incursions by forming strong partnerships."The military effort to step up its presence in the red zones and counter the Chinese incursions requires an enormous effort by India that can only be achieved through assistance by a strong partnership," it contends.

Last month, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar met the outgoing Chinese envoy to India, Sun Weidong, and emphasized that peace and tranquillity in the border areas are essential to maintaining bilateral ties.

"Received Ambassador Sun Weidong of China for a farewell call. Emphasized that the development of India-China relations is guided by the 3 Mutuals. Peace and tranquillity in the border areas is essential," Jaishankar tweeted after meeting Sun.

"The normalization of India-China relations is in the interest of both countries, of Asia and the world at large," he said in another tweet.