India inches towards flattening coronavirus COVID-19 curve, current average doubling rate of cases stand at 11 days

The Union Ministry of Health on Thursday stated that the national average of doubling time of coronavirus COVID-19 cases currently stands at 11 days, compared to 3.4 days before lockdown, highlighting that India is inching towards flattening the pandemic curve. "If we look at the doubling time of COVID-19 cases, we find that the national average is 11 Days now, compared to 3.4 days before lockdown," said Health Ministry Joint Secretary Luv Agarwal, addressing a press conference.

It is noteworthy that a total of 16 states across the country has better doubling rate of COVID-19 cases than the national average. The state with the highest number of doubling rate of COVID-19 cases is Himachal Pradesh at 191 days and Delhi records the lowest with 11.3 days.

A total of seven states has doubling rate between 11 days to 20 days--Delhi (11.3 days), Uttar Pradesh (12 days), Jammu and Kashmir (12.2 days), Odisha (13 days), Rajasthan (17.8 days), Tamil Nadu (19.1 days), and Punjab (19.5 days). Another five states have doubling rate between 20 days to 40 days--Karnataka (21.6 days), Ladakh (24.2 days), Haryana (24.4 days), Uttarakhand (30.3 days), and Kerala (37.5 days).

Four states have doubling rate above 40 days--Assam (59 days), Telangana (70.8 days), Chattisgarh (89.7 days) and Himachal Pradesh (191.6 days).

The Ministry has also stated that the recovery rate of COVID-19 has improved from 13.06 per cent to above 25 per cent in 14 days which is a positive sign. Agarwal said that 8,324 COVID-19 patients, which is 25.19 per cent of total cases, have recovered so far. In the last 24 hours, 630 patients have been cured.

The total number of cases till now in India stands at 33,050, with 1,718 new cases in the last 24 hours. Of these, 23,651 positive cases are under active medical supervision.

On the deaths so far, the Ministry said that the case fatality rate is 3.2 per cent with 65 per cent of deaths are male and 35 per cent are female. An analysis of the age-wise distribution show that the case fatality rate of those less than 45 years is 14  per cent; 45 - 60 year age group is 34.8 per cent; more than 60 years is 51.2 per cent; 60-75 years: 42 per cent; and above 75 years: 9.2  per cent. It has also been witnessed that 78% per cent of cases have comorbidity.

He said that the RT-PCR tests are available in 292 Government and 97 Private facilities across the country. A total of 49,800 tests have been conducted on average in the last 5 days, added Agarwal.

The Health Ministry has issued guidelines regarding measures to be undertaken if a suspected or confirmed COVID-19 case is detected in a non-COVID-19 health facility. Services can be continued in such health facilities after due disinfection procedure, he added.

Agarwal said, "COVID-19 tests prescribed by any health facility should be as per protocol. Treatment should not be denied to any patient, citing the requirement of additional testing beyond what is prescribed in the testing protocol. Health Minister has written to state Health Ministers on ensuring adequate availability of blood transfusion services, especially for patients needing a regular blood transfusion. The Ministry had prepared a Standard Operating Protocol for dialysis services, in the wake of COVID-19."

Health Ministry has written to states asking them to ensure that non-COVID-19 essential services continue to be provided to those who need them. "We have to ensure physical distancing becomes a norm so that the chain of transmission is broken; equally important are containment measures for the disease," further added Agarwal.

The MHA spokesperson said, "Centre has issued orders to states/UTs to facilitate Inter-State movement of stranded people, as per guidelines laid down and as per protocols developed by states."