Nepal’s future at the crossroads

By: Arunava Biswas

Regardless of the end to the Maoist rebellion and ouster of King Gyanendra`s 15-month authoritarian regime, Nepal is yet to see durable peace. Threats by the insurgents to start a new insurrection, coupled with fresh dissent in the southern plains by armed groups, have cast a cloud on the peace process.Recently, the Nepalese government announced the deferment of elections to the Constituent Assembly slated for mid-June as major parties had failed to reach a consensus on it. Nearly a year after Maoists agreed to a peace pact with the government indicating a formal end to a decade of bloodshed, an NGO established by ex-US President Jimmy Carter has reported "intolerable levels of continued terror, coercion and physical torture on civilians" in the mountainous country. Out of Nepal’s 75 districts the NGO visited 50 to assess the situation and suggested to address the poor law and order situation in order to ensure a credible electoral process. "Despite agreements at the central level by all parties to ensure that intimidation, extortion, and harassment cease, and that all seized properties are returned, these commitments are yet to be fully implemented and violations are not consistently condemned and redressed when they occur," the mission report said. The Centre asked the new eight-party government of Nepal, which also includes the Maoists rebels, to improve the "poor" law and order situation. It also suggested all political parties, regardless of their ideology, to be allowed to campaign freely in the country. This reference indirectly highlighted the Maoists preventing royalist parties from campaigning in favour of monarchy as well as attacking Indian nationals with the help of police in many places in the south of the country. The world renowned NGO asked the Nepal government to expedite formulating the laws vital for holding polls, to take extra care to include formerly underrepresented groups and to certify a reliable voter list. The Maoists in spite of signing an arms agreement with the UN and the seven-party alliance to surrender weapons still retained them. The report also emphasized that local Maoist cadres were continuing abductions, unlawful detention and extortion. The Maoists began their insurgency from the country`s jungles in 1996 to end the monarchy and enforce a republic. Maoist chairman Prachanda said his party was ready to go for a referendum to decide the fate of the king. He urged all seven parties to back his move and said if other parties do not favour the idea then a referendum can be a second option for deciding the fate of the monarchy. The Maoist gained control of most of rural Nepal, one of the world’s poorest countries, during their decade-long vicious fight to overpower the monarchy and set up a society where native people, lower caste Hindus and women would have a share in power. About 20,000 people were killed in the insurgency, most of them blameless civilians caught in the crossfire. The rebels declared a truce following the people`s movement to uproot monarchy and were taken off the `banned` list. King Gyanendra’s misrule In February 2005, King Gyanendra sacked the government and assumed direct control of the impoverished country as head of the council of ministers. He was forced to renounce power and restore Parliament after 19-day long mass protests in April last year. The King has been stripped of most of his powers, and a government panel has also suggested official action against royal ministers and high-ranking officials for their role in repressing the pro-democracy movement. A pro tem constitution has seen Girija Prasad Koirala assume the role of head of state, leaving the King with little more than his title. Earlier this month, the Maoists joined the government. They took five portfolios in a Cabinet tasked with navigating the bankrupt nation into new elections, which will lead to a decision on whether the country keeps its monarchy. The rebels hold King Gyanendra, responsible for the troubles of the country, and attribute the new turbulence in the plains to people loyal to the monarchy, accusing them of trying to sabotage the election process. The Madhesi uprising Nepal’s Terai region is a narrow belt of productive land in the southern part of the country, bordering India that produces much of the country`s agricultural products. It is home to nearly half of Nepal`s 26 million people. However, the Madhesis, who inhabit the area, have an alleged bias by people of hill districts as well as successive regimes in Kathmandu. The Madhesis have been involved in the worst bloodshed since the Maoists gave up their armed insurgency. It escalated in January after Maoist activists killed a Madhesi who was imposing a road blockade. Over 60 people have died in clashes between the ethnic group, police and the Maoists in the southern plains since January this year. Various Madhesi groups claim that their region has been neglected for long and are demanding greater political representation and share in central jobs. Madhesis have organised regular demonstrations and strikes this year in large parts of the southern plains, crippling daily life and unsettling the supply of fuel and other essential commodities to the Kathmandu valley. Leaders representing the Madhesis have accused the government of conspiring to disrupt the people`s demand for fair demarcation of constituencies and `implanting the seeds for long-term discord.` A committee set up by the government to redraw constituencies, recommended adding 35 seats - 28 in Terai Districts and seven in hilly districts. Effect of political instability in Nepal The harmful effects of the political insecurity in Nepal are apparent in increased militarization, damage of physical assets, non-functioning governmental bodies at village and district level, and reduced spending on development activities. As a result of this instability, some donors have stopped contributing to development operations in country. This has hit the poor people very hard. Over a million people are internally displaced in the country. Most of the displaced people have moved to several small towns as internal expatriates. They work the entire day as domestic helps or labourers to feed the family. Strikes and demonstrations have led to a severe shortage of food and essential commodities like fuel in the country. Apart from the poor, even the middle class is feeling the pain due to severe shortage of food and cooking gas. Leaders of political parties, who were earlier hated by the people once again, became heroes. This was largely due to the incapability of the King to deliver what he promised on February 1, 2005. These leaders never cared about human rights when they were in power, but now have become great proponents of human rights. The same leaders, who now sing the tune of a democratic system, did not have any respect for a democratic state when they were in power. Nepal has also become a haven for Bhutanese refugees. According to a UNHCR report, approximately 103,000 Bhutanese people have been confined to several refugee camps in southeastern Nepal since 1990. This protracted refugee situation is a source of regional tension between Nepal, Bhutan and India. If left unresolved, it may set a dangerous precedent in a region rife with ethnic and communal tension. Economy in shambles Amid this instability, the economy is in shambles as tourism was the hardest hit during the decade long insurgency. Over the years, the number of tourist arrivals was down. In a nation where the average person scrapes on an income of Rupees 1 lakh a year, many have fled to brothels in the sub-continent, sweatshops in Southeast Asia and servants quarters in the Gulf: media reports say about a fourth of Nepal’s 26 million population now lives overseas. The fast rising rate of inflation threatens to upset the macro-economic solidity that had been largely maintained in the last five years in spite of the political volatility. The growing inflation threatens to hit Nepal’s economic fundamentals. The frequent hike in the price of petroleum products and increase in taxes have been primarily responsible for the sudden northward movements of the inflation rate. The Central Bank had earlier, estimated over 7 percent inflation rate this financial year. With the increase in prices, the fear of double-digit inflation coupled with stagnant growth is now real. This disturbing trend could further hit the poorer sections of the Nepalese society in the worst manner leading to an economic disaster. Nepal is at the crossroads; a flawed electoral process could undermine the peace initiative. The government has to act fast to clear the uncertainty; else one of the world`s poorest countries could just get poorer more disorganised and unstable.