Low-Pressure System May Critically Influence Monsoon Advance To Kerala: IMD

New Delhi: The formation of a low-pressure area over the southeast Arabian Sea and its intensification in the next two days are expected to critically influence the advance of the monsoon towards the Kerala coast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.

The weather department, however, did not give a tentative date for the arrival of the monsoon in Kerala. Private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said the monsoon onset over Kerala may happen on June 8 or June 9 but it is expected to be a "meek and mild entry".

The IMD said the cloud mass is more organized and concentrated over the southeast Arabian Sea due to the formation of a low-pressure area and there has been some reduction of clouds off the Kerala coast.

The low-pressure area is likely to move nearly northwards and intensify into a depression over the southeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea in the next 24 hours, the IMD said around 9:30 pm on Monday.

The formation and intensification of this system and its near-northward movement are likely to critically influence the advance of the southwest monsoon towards the Kerala coast, it said. Skymet Weather said the low-pressure area is expected to intensify into a depression over the southeast Arabian Sea and may strengthen further around midweek.

"These powerful weather systems in the Arabian Sea spoil the advancement of the monsoon deep inland. Under their influence, the monsoon stream may reach coastal parts but will struggle to penetrate beyond the Western Ghats," it said.

Skymet had earlier predicted the monsoon onset over Kerala on June 7 with an error margin of three days. "The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive within this bracket. Onset criteria require stipulated rainfall on two consecutive days over Lakshadweep, Kerala and coastal Karnataka. Accordingly, the spread and intensity of rainfall may match these requirements on June 8 or June 9.

However, the onset of the annual event may not be loud and sound. It may only make a meek and mild entry to start with," the private weather forecasting agency said. The southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days. In mid-May, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the monsoon might arrive in Kerala by June 4.

The southeast monsoon arrived in the southern state on May 29 last year, June 3 in 2021, June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019 and May 29 in 2018. Scientists said a slightly delayed onset over Kerala does not mean that the monsoon will reach the other parts of the country late. Also, it does not impact the total rainfall over the country during the season.

India is expected to get normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season despite the evolving El Nino conditions, the IMD had earlier said. Northwest India is expected to see normal to below-normal rainfall. East and northeast, central, and south peninsula are expected to receive normal rainfall at 94-106 percent of the long-period average of 87 centimeters.

According to the IMD, rainfall between 96 and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 87 cm is considered 'normal'. Rainfall less than 90 percent of the long-period average is considered 'deficient', between 90 percent and 95 percent is 'below normal', between 105 percent and 110 percent is 'above normal' and more than 100 percent is 'excess' precipitation.

Normal rainfall is critical for India's agricultural landscape, with 52 percent of the net cultivated area relying on it. It is also crucial for the replenishing of reservoirs critical for drinking water apart from power generation across the country. Rainfed agriculture accounts for about 40 percent of the country's total food production, making it a crucial contributor to India's food security and economic stability.