Turkish pollsters see weaker support for AK Party in June vote

Ankara: Five Turkish polling companies have predicted the ruling AK Party`s share of the vote will drop in a June 7 parliamentary election, a blow to Tayyip Erdogan`s ambition of strengthening his presidential powers.

Erdogan, who is no longer head of the party he founded but continues to dominate the political scene, wants a crushing AKP victory to pave the way for a change in the constitution to create a presidential system.

Pollsters say the AKP is on course for far fewer parliamentary seats than the 400 targeted by Erdogan, with some saying voters are turned off by his desire for greater powers.

The party would need at least 330 seats to change the constitution and 367 seats to do so without a referendum. 

Five different polling companies estimate the AKP`s share of the vote will drop by between 1 and 8 percentage points from the 49.8 percent it garnered in 2011.

Ozer Sancer, head of the Metropoll Research Center, said the AKP`s vote had plummeted to 41.7 percent since September, with the nationalist MHP opposition party the main beneficiary. 

Such a fall could leave the AKP, which currently holds 312 seats, short of the 276 needed for even a simple majority, according to Metropoll, raising the possibility of a coalition government, something the AKP has managed to avoid so far.

"Erdogan`s persistence on the presidential system has no reciprocity in the votes ... It creates the impression of a different, more solitary regime, rather than a democracy," Sancer told Reuters.

Adil Gur from AG Research forecast the AKP would win between 276 and 290 seats, with a fragile peace process with Kurdish militants and signs of tensions within the leadership of the AK Party fuelling uncertainty.

The fate of the Kurdish HDP will be critical, with all five pollsters putting the party close to the 10 percent it would need to enter parliament. If it fails, its votes would be redistributed, favouring the AK Party.

"It is the first time 1 or 2 points are so important in elections. Once we take into account error margins, we have to see HDP on 11.5 to 12 percent in order to say they are officially over the line," AG Research`s Gur said.

Polls from research companies GENAR and MAK put the AKP on between 47-48 percent of the vote, also suggesting they could win fewer seats than they currently hold.