India needs 1,900 aircraft in 20 years, predicts Airbus

Hyderabad: Backed by buoyancy in the increase of air travellers, India will require about 1,900 new passenger and cargo aircraft before 2038, president and managing director of Airbus India (South Asia) Anand Stanley said on Thursday (March 12, 2020).

Of the 1,900 aircraft, 1,440 aircraft are for growth and 440 are for replacement of retiring aircraft, he told reporters on the sidelines of "Wings India 2020", an aviation-related event, here.

He said Airbus was sourcing volumes from the country to reach than USD one billion by 2025 from the current USD 650 million.

If you move to the future, within 20 years by 2038, we believe that the number (the 0.5 trips per capita in India) will grow at least four times. That is what China is close today. That is the average of the global markets today," he said.

"In the next 20 years, Indian traffic is forecast to increase at 8.2 per cent per year. At a fairly conservative number we believe that by 2038, we will add at least 1,880 new aircraft in India. This is net of replacements and any other deductions, he said.

Taking into account the 440 retirements, India's existing domiciled fleet of 510 aircraft would quadruple to 1,950 by 2038, he said.

According to Stanley, India is set to become one of the world's largest economies, with some of the worlds fastest growing cities in terms of GDP, like Hyderabad, Chennai and Bengaluru.

He said in the next 20 years, air transport is expected to be a key enabler and a beneficiary of this economic growth.

Rising wealth and urbanisation, and the Indian government's ambitious regional connectivity programmes are all growth drivers, he said.

With its "world class" engineering and training centres and a 45-strong supplier network, Airbus industrial footprint in India has set new standards among international aircraft manufacturers, he said.

The Design in India component (of Airbus) has been growing at fairly I would even say exponential rate and to the point that we believe in the next five years this USD 650 million number (sourcing from India) can easily cross USD one billion," he said.

Replying to a query on the A320 Neo engine issues, he said the Director General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has set May 30 as deadline to replace unmodified engines and the aircraft- maker is working with the engine manufacturers on the issue.

"About a month ago these engines, they are about 300 in the nation and over 200 of them have been upgraded and modified to the new fixes that prevent these reliability issues," Stanley said.
"The DGCA has given a directive that all of them have to be modified by May 31. We, as Airbus and an engine manufacturer, are both working to achieve the timeline," he said.

The Delhi High Court earlier this month had sought the response of the Centre, aviation regulator DGCA, Indigo and GoAir on a plea seeking grounding of A320neo aircraft with faulty engines.

The plea, filed by a Chennai-based association of passengers, alleged that despite being aware of "significant technical issues with Airbus A320 Neo," neither the Ministry of Civil Aviation (MCA) nor the DGCA has taken any concrete steps to ground these aircraft.

The Airbus official said those engines do not have any safety issues and they may be reliability issues for which "fixes and updates and modifications have been in place."