A tale of swabhiman and abhiman

Shashank Chouhan

There is a reason that Narendra Modi comes to mind when we say Gujarat. Some part of the answer lies in a people’ swabhiman (pride) while some stems from individual abhiman (ego). The government and politics of this western state of India has been dominated by the BJP for more than a decade. And in ways more than one, Modi is largely responsible for this feat. His development initiatives, almost autocratic style of functioning and ambitions that have Delhi as target make the three time CM of Gujarat an issue in himself. That Narendra Modi is an issue and is the poster boy of BJP was clear in the 2002 elections. That in his administration the state achieved a growth rate of over 10%- highest in Asia- and won the 2007 state polls established him as not a mere politician, but as in fact the very face of the Gujarat known for its entrepreneurs and industrialists. Desertion However, in the last few years the BJP has ceded ground to the Congress party due to in-fighting and groupism. In the 1999 Lok Sabha polls, BJP won 20 of the 26 seats. Then the riots happened, but were followed by the state elections where Modi got 127 seats and Congress’ tally slipped. All this while, the rebel camps were buzzing with a lot of activity. In the 2004 LS polls, BJP drastically swung low to 14 seats while Congress improved to 12. In the subsequent state election, BJP won 17 seats less while Congress secured a total of 59. Much of it has been blamed on the Modi vs. Keshubhai (his one time mentor) saga. This turf battle has led to many old timers changing their allegiance to Congress- rebel BJP MP Somabhai Patel has got the party’s support to re-contest from Surendranagar, some got suspended for raising anti-Modi pitch- former Union Minister AK Patel who is a Keshubhai man- and some have even floated new platforms to break BJP vote- Maha Gujarat Janta Party (MJP) led by former Minister of State for Home, Gordhan Zadafia, is fielding candidates from 18 constituencies. But the saga of rebellion is not limited to the BJP. The MLA from Sami-Harij constituency in north Gujarat, Bhavsinh Rathod quit Congress when his party refused him ticket from Patan, a reserved seat. Rathod is a history sheeter but his being an ST member helps BJP- that fulfilled his desire. Congress’ Somji Damor is also now a BJP man, fielded from Dahod- again a reserved seat. However, it is doubtful if crossover politics will play a big role at the hustings as was seen in the 2007 polls. Barring the urbane central Gujarat, BJP won more seats in the Patel dominated Kutch-Saurashtra region, which has earlier been the base of former CM Keshubhai Patel. An in-house analysis by Congress found the party’s dependence on BJP rebels had boomeranged in the Assembly elections. Modi-fied list But things are changed this year. The central leadership has allowed Modi to change almost the entire list- 10 of the 14 sitting MPs were denied ticket. Those axed include ex-Textile Minister Kashiram Rana, ex-Minister of State for Heavy Industries Vallabh Kathiria- both Modi baiters. But will it cost his party loyal votes? Rana has been replaced by Darshnaben Jardosh despite the fact that he has won from Surat parliamentary constituency five times and won by over a lakh votes in the 2004 Lok Sabha election. Senior party leaders cite ‘winnability’ as the only criterion. Delimitation and anti-incumbency factors have also been kept in mind while drawing the list. Caste conundrum Winnability, of course includes the caste of a candidate. In Gujarat, the largest Hindu caste is Koli or Koli Patel (about 20% of the population), followed by Patidar or Kanbi (roughly 15%), while the rest of Hindu castes are Brahmin, Vaishnava, Suthar, Luhar, Kadiya, Kumbhar, Adivasi, Rajput, Vaniya etc. The Koli and Kanbi are distributed throughout the state. The Koli Patels- spread in Kutch & Saurashtra regions- are a traditional votebank of the BJP. But their leaders Keshubhai Patel and Kanshiram Rana have opened front against Modi. Herein lies the magic of development plank- in the last Assembly election, when Patel leaders were given suspensions and show cause notices, BJP won more seats than in 2002. Kshatriyas, the traditional rivals of Patels, also played a positive role. That said, the rebel BJP leaders led by Gordha Zadaphia are trying their best to spoil the batter a bit. In Bhavnagar, Zadafia, who belongs to numerically powerful Patel community, is likely to play crucial role in the elections as the constituency has more than 2.5 lakh Patel voters. The queen of backward caste politics, Mayawati, has been fighting a tireless battle in Gujarat that has about 40% OBCs. Though she has not been able to open BSP’s account yet, her vote share has seen growth in both state and Parliament elections. In 2004, BSP won 0.1% of total votes polled and in 2007 Assembly election that share was over 2%. BJP is also trying to make inroads into OBC bastions. Of the 25 candidates declared by the party, six are from the OBC- as against 10 in Cong list- and Patidar communities each, five are tribals, Brahmin and Rajput two each and Sindhi non-Maharashtrian one each. Tribals are being given special treatment as the party began its campaign from the tribal region of Ambaji in the Banaskantha district. Tribal leaders like Virendrasinh Gohil of Bharuch and S Damor of Dahod left Congress to join BJP. This is significant as Modi has come under much criticism for lacking in implementation of Tribal Act and NREGA. The party won only one tribal seat in 2004. Diamonds are not best friends Gujarat’s Surat is India’s and, arguably, the world’s diamond capital. The state accounts for 72% of the world’s processed diamonds and 80% of India’s diamond exports and the transactions are worth about Rs 80,000cr. Recession has hit this industry and the consequences for the government of the day may be anything but friendly. As per a study, there are about 6,500 diamond processing units in Gujarat of which about 4,300 have closed within the last nine months. Over 100,000 workers have lost their jobs and have migrated to their native areas. Lok Sabha constituencies of Amreli, Bhavnagar, Surat, Valsad, Bardoli and West and East Ahmedabad are dominated by diamond industry workforce. Zadaphia, himself a diamond merchant, has vowed to take up the cause of his brethren if his MJP comes to power. The government recently announced a relief package for jobless workers. Modi declared that he had suggested to the PM to ask Hindustan Diamonds to purchase raw stock and hand it over to Gujarat’s diamond workers but nothing has come of it, he alleged. This issue even grabbed the attention of Rahul Gandhi who criticised Modi of giving easy way to Tata for Nano in form of huge subsidies, but not helping Gujarat’s indigenous industry. It led to a verbal duel between Modi and the Congress youth icon. Both ‘icons’ have targeted each other’s parties on security front. The Congress-led UPA has come under severe criticism for various terror attacks in the country including last year’s Mumbai attack as well as for sitting over the Afzal Guru issue. Modi launched a vitriolic attack on the Centre on its taking proof of Pakistan’s complicity in the 26/11 attack. However, he himself came under much criticism when he said that the attacks were impossible without internal support. Internal security is an issue on which the BJP has reaped rich dividends in Gujarat. It is a part of its national strategy to put Congress on a back-foot. Not Vidarbha In response to an RTI application, the Gujarat Police has put it on record that 366 farmers have committed suicide in 16 districts between 2003 and April 2007. In 16 cases, police have clearly mentioned that farmers killed themselves over crop failure or financial reasons. Gujarat has about 2.1 million farmers and agriculture accounts for 15% of state’s GDP and grew at 10% last year. The network of check dams under PPP model, internet connectivity to villagers that helps them check weather and know about farming techniques and increased electricity supply have prevented Gujarat from turning into neighbouring Vidarbha. What has worked in favour of Gujarat farmers is the support to cash crop provided by government as also the water of Narmada which has finally begun quenching Gujarat’s thirst. Narmada itself is a political issue in the state with Modi making it an emotional agenda, relating it with the pride and progress of Gujaratis. Kodnani, the communal card However, much water has not flown down the Sabarmati- a symbol of Mahatama’s principles. The ghastly riots of 2002 not just left the nation scarred but revealed a much more sinister strategy by those who fomented it. The first casualty that the BJP government suffered was when State Minister for Higher Education Maya Kodnani resigned on March 27 after Gujarat High Court cancelled her anticipatory bail for her alleged role in the 2002 Naroda Patiya riot case. In Assembly election 2007, a single remark of Sonia Gandhi- ‘maut ke saudagar’- for Narendra Modi, decisively turned the tables in BJP’s favour as Modi opened all fronts against Congress. This knack of using crisis is a trademark Modi motif. In the Kodnani issue also, the party is on a high moral ground, as the accused minister’s bail was rejected and she resigned. Not just that, development, which is the main poll plank in the state, has touched all quarters of the populace including the 10% Muslims of the state as was evident in the recent spate of Muslims joining the party in hordes and there not being any backlash of sorts for the last 5-7 years in the state. With 25 seats up for grabs, a hearty swing of over 10 can do either of the two political contenders enough good. While there are few chances that the BJP will be defeated, the ground beneath its feet may shake and provide some solid base for a grandstanding by the Congress.