Between revival and coalition, opposition unity remains a work in progress

Congress is looking to revive its cadre in all units, including Bengal, but TMC would want Congress to fight on lesser seats to give TMC a better chance of gaining "anti-BJP" votes.

NEW DELHI: With the general election still one-and-a-half year away, speculation has already started doing the rounds about a possible coalition of opposition parties against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). However, with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi carrying out 'Bharat Jodo Yatra' and several regional players aspiring for a national role, the possibility for opposition unity remains very 'tricky'. 

Rahul Gandhi through his Bharat Jodo Yatra, aims to mobilize the party cadre and unite the general public against the alleged "divisive politics in the country". Quite surprisingly, the 3,570 km march which started from Kanyakumari, and will culminate in Kashmir next year, hardly touched the poll-bound states of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. It gives a clear indication, that Congress is laying the highest focus on the Karnataka Assembly polls, which also happens to be the state of the newly elected party president Mallikarjun Kharge. 

Other than this, the elections in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh also pose a good chance for the party to retain its governments. If it is able to come out victorious in these state elections, it will be geared to lead the opposition unit to challenge the BJP juggernaut in 2024.

Trinamool Congress (TMC) supremo Mamata Banerjee has been quite vocal and assertive of her national ambitions. The speculation came to the fore, after TMC's thumping victory in the 2021 Bengal Assembly elections, and were somewhat laid to rest after several corruption allegations on TMC ministers shifted Mamata's focus toward her state unit.The conflict with Congress arises as soon as the question of a coalition comes up. 

Congress is looking to revive its cadre in all units, including Bengal, but TMC would want Congress to fight on lesser seats to give TMC a better chance of gaining "anti-BJP" votes. Also, TMC's plans of contesting in states like Tripura are expected to dent this very "anti-BJP" vote and hence, the vote share of Congress, just like many believe, will decline jut like it happen to some extent in Goa earlier this year. So this conflict of "revival" and "national ambition" puts the two parties in jeopardy. 

KCR has also not restrained himself from posing his national ambitions. Under this, he launched Bharatiya Rashtriya Samiti (BRS) which in his opinion is a way to take the "good work" done in the state to the national level. Now, it poses a straight challenge to Congress. While, on one hand, Congress would want TRS to fight for lesser seats and give room to Congress in the general elections. On the other hand, the national ambition of TRS would not just restrain it from conceding seats in Telangana, but it will also aim to fight for "traditional" Congress seats in other adjoining states. The raids that took place at Congress offices in Telangana, and the fiery attacks made by Rahul Gandhi at KCR during his yatra, further show the cracks that remain between the two parties.

When Nitish Kumar broke his alliance with BJP and joined hands with Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and other parties to form a new government, many political strategists made the possibility of the Janata Dal United supremo "uniting" all the opposition parties for a possible coalition against the mighty BJP. Now, other than Nitish Kumar, such speculations have also run under the name of former Maharashtra Chief Minister Nationalist Congress party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar. It remains to be seen what possible role Nitish Kumar plays ahead of the general elections, or whether the speculation too will be laid to rest, just like many others. 

Now, this is a very interesting phenomenon. While Congress is in coalition with the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) in Bengal, it is the principal opposition to the Communist government in Kerala. In such a situation, even if the two parties decide to contest together, it will be an uphill task to decide which state should be contested by whom and on how many seats. This example is enough to show the cliff, that the two parties need to cover up, before coming as a joint force. 

Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which recently became eligible for the tag of `National Party`, is another interesting player in national politics. After sweeping wins in Delhi and Punjab, AAP managed to grab near to 13% vote share in BJP`s bastion Gujarat. In Punjab, it was a Congress-led government only, which was overthrown by the AAP. Similarly, in Gujarat, AAP was able to run into a significant vote share of Congress, making it reduced to its worst-ever performance with 16 seats. Even in Goa, AAP garnered more than 6% of seats, which many believe to have dented Congress against the BJP. So, after Gujarat, AAP will be aiming to project itself as the main challenger to BJP in other states too, where Congress would be looking to gain power. It puts the `national ambition` of AAP in direct confrontation with a revival-seeking Congress. With AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal, aiming to play a long game to proclaim the role of a challenger to the BJP at the national level, the possibility of a coalition with Congress looks very grim. 

The main challenge that lies in forming a coalition at the national level, is as we saw, the very confrontation between Congress seeking a comeback and other aspiring several parties. For an instance, Congress would like to contest most if not all seats in Uttar Pradesh. But, a proper coalition would demand strong regional players like Samajwadi Party (the principal opposition in the UP assembly) to fight for majority seats, and Congress to concede on a large number of seats. Similarly, parties like AAP, BRS, and TMC, who are themselves searching for national prospects, would not like the idea of running on a lesser number of seats and providing any room to Congress. So, all this leaves the possibility of the national coalition and opposition unity on a cliffhanger. Unless, the parties with different identities and ideologies are able to get some common ground against the BJP juggernaut, the idea of `Opposition unity` remains a work in progress.