COVID-19 R-value rises sharply to 1.17 from 0.89 in mid August amid fear of 3rd wave

The COVID-19 R-value has seen a sharp uptick between the weeks in the middle of the month and towards the end. The R-value is over 1 which is a cause of concern.

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New Delhi: As the number of novel coronavirus infections are on the rise once again, it has been noted that the COVID-19 R-value too has risen sharply. The R-value calculated between August 14-17 was 0.89 but between August 24-29 it stood at 1.17, according to the researchers at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai. 

“Up to August 30, the situation looked pretty bad. India’s R-value had shot up close to 1.2. Not only is it greater than one, it is much higher than the last time there was a scare of a third wave (it was 1.03 at that time)," Sitabhra Sinha, who is leading the team of researchers at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai, told PTI. 

The uptick in R-value has been driven by several states as their R-value goes over 1 in the last few days of August. Not just the worst-hit states like Kerala and Maharashtra, but also Mizoram and Jammu and Kashmir. 

The R-value of Kerala stood at 1.33, which is the highest number of active cases in the country. Similarly, the R-value of Mizoram was 1.36, Jammu and Kashmir (1.25), Maharashtra (1.06) and Andhra Pradesh (1.09).

The Reproduction number or R-value refers to how many people an infected person infects, on average. In other words, it tells how ‘efficiently’ a virus is spreading.

This rise comes after a steady decline in cases in the first half of August.