DNA Exclusive: Analysing Ceasefire Scenario Between Israel And Hamas

After devastating 49 days of war, Israel's offensive against Hamas came to a temporary halt with the ceasefire agreement that is scheduled for the next 4 days. In Today's DNA, Zee News anchor Sourabh Raaj Jain analysed the possible outcomes of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

On the first day of the ceasefire, Hamas released 13 hostages in return for which Israel set free 49 Palestinian prisoners. Under a pre-arranged agreement, Hamas handed over 13 hostages to the Red Cross team at Rafah Border, later the Red Cross team handed over the hostages to the Israel Defense Force.

Israel is releasing 3 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for one hostage, thus in four days, while Hamas will release 50 hostages, in return Israel set free a total of 150 Palestinian prisoners. The ceasefire comes as a relief for nearly 23 lakh people of Gaza after 7 weeks of continuous offensive from both sides. As per the ceasefire agreement, Gaza will receive 1 lakh 30 thousand liters of fuel, 200 trucks of relief material and 4 trucks of cooking gas every day during the ceasefire period.

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Although Israel has negotiated for the ceasefire after 49 days of offensive against Hamas, the country has made it clear that it will not go soft on the Palestinian terror outfit and will resume the operation to eradicate it with strong attack as Israeli PM Netanyahu is adamant to eliminate Hamas.

The question that arises is what will happen after the ceasefire is over or if the agreement is violated before its scheduled time. A total of four scenarios can be set as the possible outcomes considering the ceasefire. First, the 4-day ceasefire is completed as per its schedule, second, it is violated before its timeline. The third scenario involves the extension of the ceasefire while in the fourth scenario, the deadline for ceasefire expires. 

If the 4-day ceasefire is implemented properly, then from Hamas' point of view it will be successful as it will set 150 prisoners free and the people of Gaza will be able to get maximum humanitarian aid in 4 days. If we look at it from Israel's point of view, Israel will free its 50 hostages, which will reduce the pressure on Netanyahu from the hostages' families. If the 4-day ceasefire is successful, there will be pressure on the international community to take it forward.

On the other hand, if Israel breaks the ceasefire agreement, in that situation three things will happen, first, the regional conflict will increase. Secondly, Netanyahu's credibility will fall at the international level. And thirdly, Hamas will launch more rocket attacks on Israel.

If Hamas breaks the ceasefire agreement, in that situation two things can happen, first Israel will become more aggressive and attack Hamas terrorists. Secondly, anger against Hamas will increase in Western countries.

If the ceasefire extends beyond 4 days, then from Hamas' point of view it will be successful in freeing more of its people from Israeli jails. Also, more humanitarian aid will reach Gaza. On the other hand, more Israeli hostages will be freed by Hamas which will help Israel to accelerate the army operation in the West Bank. Apart from all this, moving the ceasefire forward may end the current situation of war, and the chances of ending the war will increase. But contrary to all this, if the ceasefire expires, then war will start again in Gaza.