Who Benefits From Shinde-Sena Vs Sena-UBT And NCP-Ajit Vs NCP-Sharad Battle In Maharashtra?

The Election Commission of India yesterday ruled in favour of the Ajit Pawar faction terming it the real Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). The order came as a setback for Sharad Pawar as his party is set to challenge the order in the Supreme Court. However, it's the BJP which may emerge as a winner in the battle of Shiv Sena and NCP. The BJP has allied with both the rebel factions - Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde and NCP led by Ajit Pawar. This will boost the party's prospects in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls 2024. Maharashtra has 48 Lok Sabha seats and it will be crucial in BJP's mission 'Abki Bar 400 Paar'.

With the recent political developments in Bihar, the BJP has already got an upper hand there and now it's trying to better its poll prospects in Maharashtra. In the 2019 Maharashtra Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 23 out of the 48 seats. At that time, Shiv Sena was its ally, and it secured 18 seats. Thus the NDA had bagged 40 of the 48 seats. But since Uddhav Thackeray left the NDA and joined the Congress-NCP alliance, the BJP has recalibrated its strategy this time, sidelining Shiv Sena-UBT and Sharad Pawar-led NCP. With the NCP and Shiv Sena already splitting into two factions, the BJP stands to gain the seats where it has been traditionally weak earlier against NCP and Shiv Sena.

Sharad Pawar, who separated from Congress to form the NCP in 1999, is now at the centre of a political storm. The recent political developments, including Ajit Pawar's rebellion and NCP's affiliation with Congress, have created uncertainty about how Sharad Pawar will lead the new party forward. While it is certain that Ajit Pawar's entry and his leadership may attract the youth, the future remains uncertain.

Sharad Pawar is still active in politics, but his influence is limited to certain regions. With the departure of prominent leaders like Praful Patel and Chhagan Bhujbal, even his nephews joining politics has left a gap in his leadership. The split in the massive vote bank of the NCP is likely to benefit the BJP-led coalition. Sharad Pawar has mentioned bringing in new faces to the party, but for now, his nephew seems to be dominating the political scene.

The split between Shiv Sena and NCP has significantly benefited the BJP. Not only did they come to power in the state, but they also weakened the opposition considerably. BJP's leaders have gained a strong foothold. The impact of this realignment will be evident in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. However, it's likely that Ajit Pawar's NCP, if pitched against Sharad Pawar in the latter's stronghold may not do well in some of those seats. Opposite to that, Eknath Shinde led Shiv Sena is likely to do better against Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena because traditionally the Shiv Sena supporters have been against the Congress.

The alliance with NCP in Maharashtra is expected to benefit the BJP in various regions, especially in western Maharashtra, where NCP has had a stronghold. The BJP's strategy, if successful, could lead to achieving its goal of 45 seats and further consolidating its position in the state. The alliances with Shiv Sena and NCP may pave the way for an easier accomplishment of the "Mission 400+" in the upcoming elections.