Team India's WTC Final Qualification Scenario: Can Rohit Sharma's Team Qualify For World Test Championship Final After IND vs AUS 3rd Test Result In Draw?

As the India vs. Australia 4th Test in Melbourne draws to a tense conclusion, India's hopes of securing a spot in the 2025 World Test Championship (WTC) final are hanging by a thread. After a challenging start to the Boxing Day Test, where India found themselves trailing significantly, their qualification chances for the WTC final are at risk. With just one match remaining in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series, the question on everyone’s mind is: Can India qualify for the WTC final if they draw or lose the Melbourne Test?

The Current Scenario: India's WTC Qualification Hopes

Heading into the Melbourne Test, India’s WTC points percentage (PCT) stood at 55.88%, placing them third in the standings. However, a loss or a draw in this crucial Test would further complicate their road to the final, with Australia (58.89%) already ahead in second place. South Africa, having already secured their berth in the final, are firmly at the top with a commanding 66.67% PCT.

India’s fate, as it stands, rests on a combination of their performance in the Melbourne and Sydney Tests, as well as the results of other series, particularly the upcoming encounters between Australia and Sri Lanka, and South Africa’s match against Pakistan. Let’s break down the different scenarios for India’s qualification.

Can India Qualify for the WTC Final if They Lose or Draw in Melbourne?

The qualification pathways for India after the Melbourne Test are clear, but each outcome presents a different set of challenges:

If India Lose the Melbourne Test

A defeat in Melbourne would push India further down the standings, dropping their PCT to approximately 52.78%. Despite this, they could still stay in the race if they win the final Test in Sydney. A win would elevate India’s PCT to 55.26%, but their qualification will no longer be in their own hands. For India to qualify, Sri Lanka would need to step up and deny Australia victory in their upcoming series. If Sri Lanka wins even one match, India could edge past Australia, with the latter’s PCT likely dropping below India’s.

If India Draw the Melbourne Test

A draw in Melbourne would be a slightly better outcome for India, though still far from ideal. It would leave India with 122 points and a PCT of 53.50%. In this case, India’s qualification prospects would still depend on the Sri Lanka vs. Australia series. If Australia wins both their matches against Sri Lanka, they would overtake India in the points table. However, if Sri Lanka manages to draw or win, India could remain ahead and qualify for the final.

If India Win the Melbourne Test

While this scenario remains unlikely given their current position, a win in Melbourne would have dramatically shifted India’s qualification hopes. A victory would have significantly boosted their PCT, making them a stronger contender for the WTC final, regardless of what happened in Sydney.

Key Performances That Could Shift the Momentum

While the outcome of the Melbourne Test remains uncertain, certain individual performances have kept India’s hopes alive. The emergence of young batsman Nitish Kumar Reddy, who scored a brilliant century on Day 3, has been a ray of hope. His composed 171-ball century in India’s chase for survival is a testament to the resilience needed in these high-pressure situations. Alongside Reddy, Washington Sundar has provided valuable support with a patient fifty, giving India a fighting chance to secure a draw.

However, despite these efforts, India still trails Australia by a significant margin and needs to overcome a substantial deficit to avoid a follow-on. The partnership between Reddy and Sundar could prove crucial in setting the tone for a potential comeback in the remaining sessions of the Test.

The Road Ahead: All Eyes on Sri Lanka and Australia

India’s WTC qualification scenario hinges not only on their own performance in the remaining Tests but also on the results of the Sri Lanka-Australia series. For India to secure a spot in the final, Australia must fail to win at least one of their two Tests against Sri Lanka. In a tightly contested race for the WTC final, every result matters, and India’s qualification chances are still very much alive, albeit outside their direct control.