Water, Crisis and War

Deepak Nagpal

“Water, water everywhere and not a drop to drink…,” said Coleridge in his poem ‘The Rime of the Ancient Mariner’. Though the lines were not written in the context of lack of drinking water in general, but the sense conveyed would become a reality if the depletion of fresh water supplies continues at the current pace. Today, over 1.1 billion of the world’s total population use potentially harmful sources of water every year to meet some of their very basic needs, including quenching thirst. In clearer statistical terms, almost two in every 10 persons on this earth have no source of safe drinking water. This indirectly leads to a humanitarian crisis which causes death of nearly 3,900 children everyday across the world, according to the United Nations. In 2000, over 2.2 million human lives were lost due to waterborne diseases (related to the consumption of contaminated water) or drought. These are just some of the startling figures which highlight the existing ‘water crisis’. However, this is the crisis which ‘exists’, in the present. What’s going to come in the future is much more scary and grave. Challenge of the century The Director General of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation, Dr Jacques Dious has described coping with water scarcity as the “challenge of the 21st century”. Many, including the US, may believe Iran and North Korea’s existent or non-existent nuclear weapons pose the gravest threat to human existence. However, the scarcity of safe drinking water will prove to be the biggest challenge to humanity in the coming decades. Already, existing freshwater supplies are failing to meet the needs of the global human population. With the population expected to reach 8.1 billion by 2030, the problem is only going to get graver. What will add to the crisis is the growing demand for food. According to estimates, 14% additional freshwater will need to be diverted in the next three decades for use in agriculture, which already accounts for 70% of water use worldwide. “As population grows and development needs call for increased allocations of water for cities, agriculture and industries, the pressure on water resources intensifies, leading to tensions, conflicts among users, and excessive strain on the environment,” Dr Diouf said. Why is water important? All the ancient human civilisations have been traced close to rivers, which clearly demonstrates the importance of water in our lives. We build our cities near water; we bathe and play in water; we perform our daily chores with water; and we survive because of water. Water is an integral part of our daily life, and plays an important role in shaping it. Without water Life on earth would not be possible. We might continue to consider water ‘sacred’ and use it in different religious rites and ceremonies, but it no longer occupies the place it used to in our esteem. Earlier, water used to be considered an element to be revered and protected but it has now become a mere consumer product that we shamefully disregard. We humans have forgotten that nearly 70% of our bodies are made of water, and same amount of the earth’s surface is covered by water. We have forgotten that water is our culture, our life. Human In‘action’ While governments across the globe continue to spend billions on numerous development projects, very few seem to be worried about the nature. Almost every forward movement that humanity makes towards development, it takes a step backward in preserving (or say destroying) the environment, nature and our beautiful earth. And water is very much a part of this earth. Considered to be one of the five basic elements of life, water is no longer as important as gold, money, car, house etc. The human action, or to put it better the human inaction is destroying this very precious element of life. What is making matters worse is the consequences of the conflict between the man and nature, one of which is global warming. Climate change has raised the stakes. Scientists have blamed global warming for more frequent droughts. Storms and flooding, which destroy crops, contaminate freshwater and damage the facilities used to store and carry that water, have also increased due to the change in climatic conditions. Search goes deeper Panic is mounting due to shortage of water. People are going deeper and deeper to tap the sinking water table, in the absence of or shortage of potable water. Governments too, are using ground water because of lack of its availability from other sources. Most of the development projects being undertaken across the world depend on groundwater supplies. But we forget that tapping groundwater is like constantly withdrawing from a bank account without ever depositing anything into it. The unchecked use of groundwater, which is irreplaceable, will not only result in depletion of a once-and-for-all resource. Rivers, lakes etc that depend on it will perish too. Salty seawater will then enter into the system to replace the fresh water that has been pumped out. Climate in peril The rise in global temperature recorded in the 20th century was the highest seen during the last thousand years, and the last decade was the warmest since records began. With the rise in temperature comes more heat, leading to melting of glaciers and icecaps, thereby causing a ‘surge’ in sea level. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected that global mean sea level will likely rise with a ‘best estimate’ of 50 centimetres by the end of this century. This 50cm rise in sea level, at many places around the world, would lead to washing away of beaches, along with a major portion of the coastline. People residing in low-lying islands like the Maldives, where the highest point is only two to three metres above current sea levels, will suffer as an additional 50cm could see major chunks of their islands being washed away due to erosion or covered by water. Even if the sea level remains below the highest point, many islands will lose most of their supplies of drinking water as seawater will invade their freshwater aquifers. This damage will be nothing when compared to the one millions of people living in the low-level coastal areas of South Asia, including India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, will suffer. Apart from triggering a rise in sea level, global warming will ‘intensify drought and floods’, said Stephen Schneider, a lead author for the IPCC. Global warming will lead to long, dry periods at places where the atmosphere normally experiences high pressure and droughts, while more rain and gully washers will be seen at places where the atmosphere is configured to be wet, he explained. Climate refugees Global warming poses threat to water supplies in other ways too. A large part of the world’s fresh water supplies are stored in glaciers atop mountains. The glaciers grow with snow in wet or cold seasons, while their edges start melting in dry and hot seasons, gently feeding streams and rivers. Huge cities have come up below on the belief that the mountains will keep providing them with drinking water, always. However, it is not the case. The atmosphere’s temperature is rising even faster at high altitude. The glaciers are melting, initially giving more water, but gradually becoming smaller and smaller in size. Soon, we won’t find many of them, including the Himalayan glaciers. What will happen when this supply of freshwater stops? People in these cities won’t just sit there, but move to places where people already live. This will give rise to a situation where we will have ‘climate refugees’ in our own countries. A recent report, which adds weight to this projection, states that two billion people will face acute water shortage this century as Himalayan glaciers melt due to global warming. Preparing for war? This water crisis may pose threat to international peace and security, as advocated by many. The potential for conflict is much more than theoretical. There are already tensions between Turkey, Syria and Iraq over the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt have been threatening each other over the Nile. According to the UN, water scarcity is among the prime reasons behind the deadly wars in Sudan’s Darfur region. In the Middle East, water is seen as a resource that has strategic value. Amidst tensions between the nations over it, water has been included in almost all peace deals that have either been proposed or signed in recent years. Many in the region, including several prominent leaders, have claimed that ‘the next war in the Middle East will be over water’. There seems to be some weight in the above claim. Tensions are already high and are likely to mount in the near future. It is estimated that by 2025, 40 countries in the Middle East and Africa will face acute water scarcity. But going to war over water makes very little sense – both economically as well as politically. To put the whole situation into perspective, Israeli hydrologist Uri Shamir very rightly said, “If there is political will for peace, water will not be a hindrance. If you want reasons to fight, water will give you ample opportunities.” But the fact is, the outlook for Asia as well as India remains grim. While the Asian Development Bank has said developing countries in Asia could face an ‘unprecedented’ water crisis within 10 years, experts in India have also commented that the country’s population will outstrip the availability of water in the next four decades. (The UN is celebrating World Day for Water 2008 on March 20 with the theme ‘Sanitation’.)