Decoding Mamata Banerjee Masterstroke That Trumphed Modi Strategy In Bengal

In the West Bengal Lok Sabha election, despite putting up a strong fight, the BJP fell short of its previous performance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself expressed confidence in an interview that the party would achieve a stellar performance in Bengal. Despite this confidence, the BJP secured fewer seats than in the last election, with TMC winning 29 seats, BJP 12, and Congress 1 in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

According to Prateek Jain, co-founder and director of I-PAC, the cash assistance scheme for women, ‘Lakshmi Bhandar,’ played a crucial role in Mamata Banerjee's success. I-PAC, a consulting agency that assists the Trinamool Congress in election strategies, believes this scheme turned the tide in Banerjee's favor. Jain pointed out that incorrect candidate selection might have also contributed to the BJP's poor performance, resulting in the party winning only 12 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

I-PAC’s Role and Analysis

Prateek Jain, known as PJ among his associates, took over I-PAC’s services for TMC after Prashant Kishor left the party post the 2021 Assembly elections. Responding to a query about Kishor's prediction before the counting, Jain humorously remarked that his assessment for Bengal was different from Kishor's. Kishor had predicted that BJP would improve on its previous tally of 18 seats, possibly reaching 30 seats. However, Jain remained silent at the time to avoid conflicting with his former boss.

Benefiting 50 Percent of Voters

Jain highlighted that Mamata Banerjee's women-centric beneficiary schemes such as ‘Lakshmi Bhandar,’ ‘Kanyashree,’ and ‘Sabuj Sathi’ significantly swayed voter sentiment towards TMC, especially in rural Bengal. He noted that nearly 50 percent of voters in the state are women, with around 2.3 crore economically weaker women receiving Rs. 1000 monthly assistance from ‘Lakshmi Bhandar.’ This financial aid not only alleviated their economic troubles but also empowered rural women.

Why BJP Failed

Despite BJP's campaign focusing on women, it failed to attract voters. Jain attributed this to the BJP’s predominantly negative campaign and its focus on hollow promises. The release of a sting operation video exposed BJP's claims, dealing a severe blow to their credibility. Jain also remarked that despite Prime Minister Modi's claims about the 'Lakshmi Bhandar' scheme, no beneficiary could be found in Bengal.

Candidate Selection Errors

Jain pointed out that the BJP made errors in candidate selection. For instance, shifting Dilip Ghosh to Bardhaman-Durgapur led to the loss of not just that seat but also two additional seats: Medinipur, where Ghosh was originally an MP, and Asansol, where Agnimitra Paul was placed. These strategic missteps cost the BJP dearly.

Overcoming Exit Poll Fears

Jain admitted feeling anxious due to exit polls predicting a significant BJP victory in the state. This led I-PAC to question their strategies and consider potential errors. However, their internal assessments predicted at least 23 seats for TMC. Jain shared that after the Ram Temple consecration ceremony in Ayodhya in January, the party re-evaluated its strategy, as internal surveys indicated this event could sway an additional five percent of votes towards the BJP in Bengal.