How BJP Mitigated Risk Of Defeat On 88 Lok Sabha Seats Crucial To Modi's Third Term

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has given a poll slogan of 'Abki Baar, 400 Paar' to hand over Prime Minister Narendra Modi another decisive victory. While the Hindi belt has been a key to sending Modi to power, the saffron party was staring at a lower Lok Sabha seat tally two years ago. Especially due to being ousted from power in Bihar and Maharashtra owing to fallouts with its alliance partners. While Nitish Kumar shunned the BJP in 2022, Maharashtra had slipped from the NDA fold in 2020 as the BJP and Shiv Sena differed on power-sharing terms. 

Bihar had 40 Lok Sabha seats and the NDA had won 39 of these in the previous Lok Sabah elections. In 2019, the BJP, JD(U) and the LJP had contested the polls together. Out of the state's 40 Lok Sabha seats, both BJP and JD(U) contested on 17 seats each, while LJP contested on 6 seats. But, the BJP was probably looking at a lower seat tally in 2024 in the absence of Nitish and the charismatic LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan who passed away in 2020. By bringing Nitish once again within the NDA fold, the BJP is now again looking to repeat the 2019 performance in Bihar.

In Maharashtra, there are 48 Lok Sabha seats and the BJP and Shiv Sena had won 41 of them. While the BJP had bagged 23 seats, Shiv Sena had won 18 seats in the 2019 polls. With Shiv Sena under Uddhav Thackeray joining hands with Congress and NCP, the BJP was on the backfoot in Maharashtra even in terms of the vote share. The defections in the Shiv Sena and the NCP have ensured a division of votes and that will again benefit the NDA. The NDA may win around 45 seats this time in Maharashtra given the alliance with Sena-Eknath Shinde and NCP-Ajit Pawar.

The BJP is again in the driver's seat in both of the states and this can hurt the INDIA bloc's poll prospects in 2024.