The assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir is likely to be held in 2021 following the delimitation of parliamentary and assembly constituencies of the newly formed Union Territory.
Sources in the Election Commission told Zee News that the process of delimitation will begin after October 31 and will take at least 10 to 15 months for completion. The process will be executed in 10 phases after approval from the Ministry of Home Affairs and formation of the Delimitation Commission.
The poll panel has already prepared a blueprint for the delimitation process which is based on its experience in Uttarakhand in 2000-2001.
In 1995, the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir had undergone delimitation and 111 Assembly seats were formed at that time. After carving Ladakh out, the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir is expected to get at least 107 seats.
EC sources, however, said that Jammu and Kashmir will get a total of 114 assembly seats after delimitation. Out of these 114 seats, 24 will be reserved for PoK. This means polls will be held for 90 seats in the next assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir.
In 2014 Assembly election, BJP won 25 out of 37 assembly seats in Jammu region, while five seats were grabbed by the Congress. The two biggest parties of Kashmir Valley - Mehbooba Mufti's PDP and Omar Abdullah's NC - had managed to win three seats each. One seat went to the independent candidate.
On the other hand, PDH won 28 out of 46 Assembly seats in Kashmir Valley and NC claimed victory on 15 seats. The Congress finished at third place with 12 seats in its kitty.
It is widely expected that Jammu region will get seven more seats after delimitation, which means that the total number of Assembly seats in Jammu region will increase to 44 from 37. On the other hand, the assembly seats in Kashmir Valley will come down to 42 from 46 due to the carving out of Ladakh as a separate Union Territory. This means that it will be advantage BJP after delimitation and it is quite possible that the saffron party would be able to form the government on its own in Jammu and Kashmir after delimitation.