Lok Sabha polls: Will it be Congress win in Manipur in 2014?

Manisha Singh

Manipur has two parliamentary seats - Inner Manipur (valley districts) and Outer Manipur (hill districts). The state will go to the polls on April 9 (first phase) in outer Manipur and on April 17 in inner Manipur (second phase). The main political forces in the state are the Congress (INC), the Manipur People`s Party (MPP) and the Communist party of India. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Janata Dal (United), the Trinamool Congress, the Federal Party of Manipur, the Naga People`s Front and others too are also putting up candidates in the state along with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). The Congress has fielded two sitting MPs to fight from the state. Meinya Singh would be contesting from inner Manipur constituency and Thangso Baite is the contender in the outer Manipur segment. Meanwhile, the BJP has fielded Gangmumei Kamei and RK Ranjan, former professors of Manipur University to contest the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. While Ranjan will contest from inner Manipur constituency (Valley districts), Kamei will be the candidate in the outer Manipur constituency (Hill districts). In the run up to the polls, both the national parties have been wooing the electorate in the Northeast state. Whereas Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi, though avoiding a direct reply on withdrawal of AFSPA from Manipur, said, while addressing a rally, in the state that insurgency problem there like in Assam could be solved through discussions, devolution of power and love, BJP`s prime ministerial candidate candidate Narendra Modi while addressing a rally in Imphal in February 08 lashed out at the Centre, especially the Congress, for failing to ensure the development of the Northeast region and also for failing to address the issues of insurgency and drug-trafficking. Modi also reminded the people in Manipur that BJP leader and former PM of India Atal Bihari Vajpayee had taken the step in creating a separate ministry for the Northeastern region (Ministry of DONER - Development of North East Region) and promised that if voted to power in the Centre his party would work towards developing the potential of herbal industry, horticulture and agro-processing industries in the state. Though the organisational strength of the BJP is weak in the state, Modi`s rallies in Kochi and Thiruvananthapuram were well-attended. But it remains to be seen if it will translate into votes. The BJP has won inner Manipur Lok Sabha seat in the past - since 1995, till it lost to the Congress in 2004. Apart from insurgency, the withdrawal of Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) and allegations of human rights violations levelled against the Armed Forces have been the burning issues in the state. Insurgency started in Manipur as early as in the 1960s and United National Liberation Front (UNLF) which was created in 1964 started demanding an independent socialist state of Manipur. Later the UNLF went underground. As of now more than 20 rebel armies are said to be active in the state, with demands ranging from secession to greater autonomy. As per various predictions and opinions by experts, the Congress is expected to win both the seats in Manipur. The Manipur Pradesh Congress Committee is leaving no stones unturned to highlight the proper implementation of welfare policies by the UPA government among the electorate. And if one were to take the whole of Northeast into consideration then the Congress when compared to the BJP does not have much presence in the region. The Northeast region comprising of more than 400 ethnic groups, has 25 Lok Sabha seats of which Congress-led UPA has 21. The BJP has four Lok Sabha members in Assam but no elected representatives in other states of the region. In the last Assembly elections in Manipur in 2012, the Congress won hands down by defeating the Naga People`s Front and the Manipur People`s Party, getting a two third majority and winning 42 out of 60 constituencies under its belt. Trinamool Congress won 7 seats and the MPP won 4. The present Congress government is in its third term as the ruling party in Manipur with Okram Ibobi Singh as the Chief Minister. The win for Congress came in the backdrop of seven major militant groups of the state `CorCom` calling for a ban on all election meetings and campaigning by the party`s candidates in the state and warning them of dire consequences if their diktat was violated. Manipur became a full- fledged state of the Indian Union on on January 21, 1972 Since then, Assembly elections have been held in the state interspersed with regular imposition of President`s rule. There are a number of ethnic tribal communities in Manipur, with the Meities the largest and Kuki, Nagas and Hmars being the smaller groups.