Monsoon likely to reach South Kerala by May 31, says Centre; full forecast by IMD in mid June

The IMD will issue the updated monsoon forecast by the first week of June based on the operational model and with the updated data up to May 2016.

New Delhi: Climatologically monsoon is expected to reach South Kerala by May 31, said Minister of State for Science and Technology and Earth Sciences YS Chowdary in a written reply to a question in the Lok Sabha on Wednesday, adding that the forecast for the monsoon onset dates would be issued on May15.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) will issue the updated monsoon forecast by the first week of June based on the operational model and with the updated data up to May 2016, said a press release issued by the Ministry of Earth Science.

Monsoon onset over Kerala follows the monsoon advancement over the Andaman Sea that climatologically falls around May20. So as to account for the Monsoon advancement over Andaman Sea, the monsoon onset forecast over Kerala is issued around middle of May annually.

Although Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, has claimed a novel method to forecast monsoon onset over the Eastern Ghats (North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Southern Odisha) and monsoon withdrawal from North Pakistan only, the methodology adopted has some limitations and uncertainty, he said.

"At the same time, the respective withdrawal predictions have shown reduced skill during recent 2010-14 period. As the methodology has not been tested for monsoon onset over the South Kerala, no tangible gain is expected for our operational onset monsoon forecast," he added.

However, the IMD issues the monsoon onset forecast based on an indigenously developed model. The forecasts for monsoon onset for the last 10 years have been found correct.

The forecast for monsoon in 2014 and 2015 were correct, however, in 2013, the monsoon forecast issued by the IMD was marginally under estimated.

Both 2014 and 2015 were deficient monsoon years.