The number of coronavirus COVID-19 cases averted due to the nationwide lockdown is between 36-70 lakhs claimed the Centre on Friday citing different models. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation citing the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) model, also said that the lockdown has saved between 1.2-2.1 lakh lives.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation Secretary cited the Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI) saying that nearly 78,183 (96.72 per cent) deaths have been averted due to the lockdown.
According to the ministry, 20 lakh COVID-19 cases, and 54,000 deaths have been avoided due to the lockdown. It has been found that overall 14-29 lakh cases and 37-38 lakh deaths have been avoided due to the lockdown, added the ministry.
Addressing the media, the Empowered Group 1 Chairman and NITI Aayog Member (Health) Dr VK Paul said that despite being such a large nation, the outbreak of COVID-19 has remained confined to limited areas, due to the lockdown.
"The growth rate of COVID-19 cases witnessed a steady fall from April 3 when the lockdown was able to put a brake on the speed of growth. Today India has a growth percentage of 5.5 which was as high as 22 per cent earlier. The number of COVID-19 deaths too has fallen significantly due to the lockdown, marking a notable difference between pre-lockdown and post-lockdown situations," said Paul.
"Real COVID-19 virus growth trajectory depends on the mathematics of the spread of infection, also on the behaviour of community and society. How we respond cannot be put into a model/equation, we can only make some guesses. Hence it is difficult to predict. Some epidemiologists, however, estimate high numbers as well. However, we have not done this estimate, what we have to say is that we will take required actions and control the infection to the maximum extent possible," he added.