UP assembly elections 2022: Probable chief ministerial candidates and possible alliances

Though the assembly election in Uttar Pradesh is still a few months away, major political parties have started exploring all the options for a possible pre-poll alliance and initiated discussions over who could be their top choice for the chief minister's post.

Lucknow: Though the assembly election 2022 in Uttar Pradesh is still a few months away, major political parties have started exploring all the options for a possible pre-poll alliance and initiated discussions over who could be their top choice for the chief minister's post.

As far as the ruling BJP is concerned, it has categorically ruled out replacing incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and has thrown its full weight behind him. This implies that the monk-politician will possibly be the main face of the saffron party’s 2022 election campaign. 

Yogi Adityanath (BJP)

Despite recent rumblings within the party and in view of the opposition’s blazing attack over the state government’s handling of the COVID-19, the BJP top brass has given the Yogi government a clean chit and lauded its work in the past 4 years. However, it still remains concerned about how to handle the rising public anger against the government over its mishandling of the devastating second wave of COVID-19.

Another factor that the BJP top brass has been deliberating upon is that its 'Hindutva' card has been losing its sheen in state politics. What further proves this is the fact that several BJP-supported candidates had to face humiliation in traditional BJP strongholds like  Gorakhpur, Ayodhya, Varanasi and Mathura in the recently concluded panchayat polls. 

This implies that Ram temple or 'Hindutva' alone can not fetch votes for the saffron party in the coming polls, which is crucial for the BJP and PM Narendra Modi for seizing power in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Though the outcome of the 2022 polls cannot be predicted on the basis of the results of the local panchayat polls, it still reflects which way the wind is blowing. On the other hand, Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party made considerable gains despite not showing great enthusiasm during the local panchayat elections. 

There is no denying the fact that BJP has the strongest vote bank in Uttar Pradesh, but what worries the party is the rising anti-incumbency factor against the government due to high unemployment, declining law and order situation, people's frustration and anger due to a large number of COVID deaths, poor management of the pandemic, etc that can dent its poll prospects in UP this time. 

Despite its strong positioning among the forward castes, the Jat and the Vaishya community members are quite disenchanted with the saffron party, mainly due to the Narendra Modi govt's cold response to the farmers agitating against the three farm laws and huge losses to the small traders due to demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax (GST). 

The party is not hopeful of a good voter turnout in its favour in the western UP where the RLD led by late former Union Minister Ajit Singh wields considerable clout among the farmers. This time, RLD is likely to go with Akhilesh Yadav's party, which will hurt the chances of BJP getting good numbers in the region.     

The BJP, according to sources, may also follow its Assam model of not projecting a chief ministerial candidate before elections in an attempt to beat any anti-incumbency in other poll-bound states - a strategy party might discuss in the run-up to the assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh. Besides Uttar Pradesh, the strategy is likely to benefit the party in other states like  - Uttarakhand, Goa, Himachal Pradesh, and Gujarat.

Priyanka Gandhi (Congress)

While Congress is trying hard to revive itself in the state, it is still in search of a credible face in UP. Jitin Prasada’s exit will further make a dent in its upper caste vote bank. The main opposition party may further lose its Brahmin vote bank. The Congress party’s poll prospects will clearly depend on Priyanka Gandhi’s charismatic appeal and her connection with the voters of UP. However, this too has been tested in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and the last assembly elections in which BJP came out as a clear winner.

With Rahul Gandhi not very keen on taking the party's reins again and organisational elections due to take place in some time, it would be interesting to see if Congress projects Priyanka Gandhi as its CM face in UP.  The UP in-charge of the Congress party has been very vocal about the Narendra Modi and the Yogi Adityanath government both at the Centre and state respectively and has emerged as a formidable challenger to the Chief Minister. She also enjoys a good equation with both the old and young guards in the party and has a massive youth appeal too.    

Sanjay Singh (AAP)

Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party - another player in UP politics - has also made its presence felt by winning a significant number of seats in UP’s panchayat polls. Though talks of a rapprochement with poet-politician Kumar Vishwas is too far-fetched at the moment, the AAP leadership may try to project its Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh as its CM candidate. 

Sanjay Singh’s UP background may help AAP to woo upper caste voters in UP, thus dividing the BJP’s vote bank. He is the national spokesperson of the Aam Aadmi Party and the state-in-charge for Uttar Pradesh, Orissa and Rajasthan. Sanjay Singh was born in Sultanpur District, Uttar Pradesh.

AAP has already made it clear that Sanjay Singh will be the face of the post of Chief Minister in UP. The party leaders have claimed that if AAP wins, the Delhi development model will be implemented in Uttar Pradesh too.

Mayawati and Om Prakash Rajbhar

In all probability, Dalit icon and state’s former Chief Minister Mayawati will be the chief ministerial candidate of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Mayawati had sometimes back announced that her party would go alone in the Uttar Pradesh assembly election next year. However, the party would not hesitate to join hands with Om Prakash Rajbhar, who has ruled out any alliance with the BJP for 2022 polls.

Ending all speculations, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) leader Om Prakash Rajbhar has said that there will be no alliance with the BJP again. The SBSP leader also claimed that the BJP passed over backward leaders and even deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya was "ignored" in the Yogi Adityanath government.

Accusing the BJP of deceiving the backward section, Rajbhar claimed that his party played a major role in BJP winning close to 100 seats in UP in the last assembly polls. The SBSP had contested the 2017 UP Assembly elections in alliance with the BJP, but later parted ways. In the 2017 Assembly elections, the SBSP contested eight seats and won four. Rajbhar was made a Cabinet minister but he resigned later due to differences with Yogi Adityanath's leadership.

There is also a possibility of BSP and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) coming together in Uttar Pradesh. If this happens, the alliance will cause a major dent in SP’s Muslim and backward votes.

Akhilesh Yadav (SP)

On the other hand, Samajwadi Party chief and former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav has said that his party will not form an alliance with the Congress or Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party. Yadav said that SP will not tie up with any major political parties but would instead go with smaller regional parties.

The party will tie up with smaller parties in UP, look to forge alliances with Jayant Chaudhary’s Rashtriya Lok Dal, Sanjay Chauhan’s Janwadi Party and Keshav Dev Maurya’s Mahan Dal, the SP chief has said. The Samajwadi Party president also hinted at forming an alliance with his uncle Shivpal Yadav, who is also trying hard to stay relevant in the state politics after facing humiliation in the last assembly and Lok Sabha polls.

The SP chief has also said that his party will not field its candidate on the latter’s seat in Jaswantnagar. The Samajwadi Party has had bitter experiences in the previous assembly elections and the 2019 general elections, in which it contested in alliance with Congress and BSP respectively. Consequently, the party is now looking to go without them. Moreover, SP had a decent showing in the recently concluded panchayat elections in which it emerged at the top, leaving behind the ruling BJP.

Hence, Akhilesh Yadav will certainly be the biggest bet of the Samajwadi Party in the upcoming UP assembly elections. Also, with the ''Bua-Bhaija'' (Mayawati-Akhilesh) relationship souring at the moment, there is no possibility of the two parties coming together to oust the ''Modi-Shah powered'' BJP in UP.