Exit polls predict Tejashwi Yadav as CM, Mahagathbandhan government in Bihar

NEW DELHI: While victory and defeat in the Bihar assembly election 2020 will be decided on November 10, but if exit poll predictions are to be believed then Tejashwi Yadav-led ‘Mahagathbandhan’ is expected to form the next government in Bihar.

Major exit polls on Saturday (November 7, 2020) predicted a clear advantage for Tejashwi Yadav-led ‘Mahagathbandhan’ over Janata Dal-United and BJP- led NDA alliance in the closely contested three-phased Bihar assembly election 2020.

Interestingly, while the majority of exit polls predicted the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ wining between 120-130 seats, they estimated NDA to roughly win between 104-110 seats. However, no alliance or party appeared to be getting a majority on its own, leading to a possibility of a hung assembly.

Chirag Paswan's LJP is expected to win between 4-8 seats and is likely to emerge as a kingmaker if no party wins a majority in Bihar. Several exit polls had predicted a close finish, with the anti-incumbency factor weighing heavily on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who is looking for a fourth successive term in the chair.

As the projections show RJD gaining the maximum number of seats in the state, the Bihar Exit Polls reflect upon the emergence of Tejashwi Yadav beyond his father and party chief Lalu Yadav’s shadow. These elections may establish Tejashwi as a pivot in Bihar politics and he may also go on to become the next chief minister face.

According to Times Now-CVoter Exit Poll for the Bihar Assembly election 2020, Tejashwi Yadav's Grand Alliance is projected to win 120 seats compared to Nitish Kumar-led NDA's 116 seats.

Interestingly, Today's Chanakya also predicted a landslide win for the ''Mahagathbandhan'' with 180+ seats. A vote projection for the Bihar election by Today’s Chanakya predicted that the BJP-JDU netted 34% of the total votes polled, while the RJD-Congress received 44%. Other parties, including Chirag Paswan’s LJP, received 22%, it predicted.

Meanwhile, the prediction made by India Today-Axis My India says that 44% of people preferred Tejashwi Yadav as the next chief minister of Bihar. Incumbent Nitish Kumar got thumbs up from 35% of respondents whereas Chirag Paswan was preferred by just seven per cent.

The Zee Maha Exit Poll predicted 104-128 seats for NDA; RJD getting 108-131, LJP winning 5-8 and Others getting 3-6 seats,

Tejashwi Yadav could have further milked his youth image by gaining sympathy on the basis of his jailed father Lalu Yadav. The Yadav scion also cleverly kept his family members, including his father, and their images away from the election campaigns. 

It appears that the RJD also made the right choices in forming the alliance by staying away from duped parties like HAM, VIP, RLSP, who were not reliable. With the Bihar exit poll results swaying in favour of RJD, one of the most important factors that may have worked for Tejashwi Yadav could be strong loyal Muslim-Yadav caste equation/backing for the party.

Also, bringing in the CPI(ML), a party with substantial committed and transferable votes, may have affected the voting for the better. Further, the Mahagathbandhan seemed to be going strong with no infighting or confusion within the alliance, unlike the tussle between BJP-JD(U) and LJP. 

The promise of jobs in the face of anti-incumbency against Nitish could have further improved RJD's chances in Bihar polls. Rashtriya Janata Dal president Lalu Prasad`s son Tejashwi Yadav clearly managed to outshine most others. All parties had thrown their weight behind their candidates during the campaigning, although Congress interim president Sonia Gandhi and former BJP president Amit Shah were conspicuous by their absence.

On behalf of the NDA, Bihar Chief Minister and JD (U) star campaigner Nitish Kumar and BJP leader and Union Minister Nityanand Rai spoke their mind at election rallies. While in the absence of RJD president Lalu Prasad, Tejashwi Yadav took charge of campaigning and sought votes for the Grand Alliance candidates by holding 247 meetings.

Tejashwi Yadav addressed 247 public meetings on his own and held four roadshows. He held 12 public meetings in a day on an average. RJD spokesman Mrityunjay Tiwari said that from the beginning of the election campaign, Tejashwi Yadav held more than a dozen meetings every day.

In addition, Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi had eight meetings on behalf of the Grand Alliance while Congress spokesperson Randeep Singh Surjewala held more than 20 rallies to demand votes for Grand Alliance candidates. Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel also participated in the election campaign in Bihar.

Talking about the NDA, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar held more than 160 meetings out of which he was with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in six meetings. In addition, the Chief Minister also held virtual meetings and conveyed his thoughts to the people through the use of technology.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed 12 election rallies in these elections. His first meeting was held in Sasaram on October 23 and the final election meeting was held at Forbesganj on November 3.