New Delhi, Apr 16: In a gloomy prediction bound to make Indian farmers unhappy, the Met office has predicted that this year’s monsoon has a greater chance of making to the ‘below normal’ grade. The forecast has come 40 days ahead of the usual time of announcement of the annual weather phenomenon.
The announcement, made ahead of its usual day of declaration for the first time, had been possible because of using a new weather forecast model which takes 8 parameters into account instead of the usual 16.
Elaborating the findings of the newly-devised method, the head of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) R R Kelkar said in a press conference today that the chances for a below-normal monsoon stood at 21 pc and the normal-to-below-normal chances at 39 pc.
On the other hand, the chances of a normal and a surplus monsoon recorded 16 pc and 23 pc respectively, he said.
The new forecasting model holds the promise of greater accuracy in the prediction of the all-important monsoons.
Kelkar also said the first rains of the monsoons would hit the Kerala coast on schedule on June 1.
Last year, India suffered its worst drought in 15 years which hit food output leading to lower economic growth. Agriculture contributes 25 per cent to the GDP and employs some 70 per cent of India’s more than one billion population.
Bureau Report
