Haryana Result 2024: Amid Setback For Congress, Time For Rahul Gandhi To Move Beyond Caste Calculus?

Jammu and Kashmir as well as Haryana assembly elections results were announced on Tuesday. The elections brought mixed results for both Congress and the BJP. While the BJP secured Haryana and improved its tally in the Jammu region, the Congress found itself on a rough pitch in both states. In Jammu and Kashmir, Congress contested 32 seats and won just six while in Haryana, it contested 89 and bagged 37. Despite being in a strong position to form government in Haryana as per trends and exit polls, Congress fell short of a majority. The Congress party's loss and consolidation of non-Jaat votes in favour of the BJP have thrown the spotlight once again on the caste census plank used by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. Has the BJP found a way to mitigate the caste census conundrum?

Decoding Haryana Poll Results-Caste Equations

The Haryana election results have just vindicated the saffron party's long tried and tested poll arithmetic where it goes against the traditional poll caste equations to consolidate non-dominant factors. In Haryana, the BJP managed to consolidate all non-Jat votes while Jats and Muslims reportedly voted for Congress and INLD owing to resentment against the BJP due to farmers' and wrestlers' protests. 

Jats hold significant influence in 40 out of the 90 Assembly constituencies in Haryana. Since the state's formation in 1966, after being separated from Punjab, members of the Jat community have held the position of chief minister for over three decades. Congress, again went to the polls with the virtual CM face being former CM and prominent Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda. While Congress fielded 28 Jats, BJP gave tickets to 16 Jats. The BJP's CM face Nayab Singh Saini is an OBC leader while the state BJP chief Mohan Lal Badoli is a Brahmin leader. Jatav and Valmiki are two prominent dalit sub-castes in Haryana and while the former votes for Congress, the latter votes for the BJP. Then there are Dhankas.

There are 17 reserved seats in Haryana and both parties fielded as many Dalit candidates. The BJP fielded eight Jatav, four to Valmikis and five to other Dalit sub-castes. The Congress gave 12 tickets to Jatav, two to Valmikis, and three to others. With Congress more lenient towards Jats, the Dalit votes were reportedly divided and turned in favour of the saffron party. 

The BJP centred its electoral strategy on uniting non-Jat communities, particularly the backward classes, which make up around 35% of the state's population. This approach seems to have yielded positive results for the saffron party. 

Rahul Gandhi's Caste Calculus 

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has been trying to woo the voters with his caste census plank with 'Jitani Abadi, Utna Haq'. However, the plank appears to have failed miserably with the party suffering losses in both - Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. In fact, the BJP was able to convey its message to voters that Congress is trying to create a divide among the people. Moreover, the election results clearly indicate - 'You can't fool someone twice'. The BJP not only managed to put away the reservation narratives but also successfully consolidated non-Jat votes in its favour. Thus, this may be a time for Rahul Gandhi to look beyond the caste-census narrative. Or else, Congress can carry out caste census in states it's ruling and implement the 'jitani abadi, utna haq' to present it as an example in upcoming polls like Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Delhi and Bihar.