Modi's Masterstroke? Vishnu Deo Sai's Elevation In Chhattisgarh And Poll Arithmetic

The BJP today selected former Union Minister and tribal leader Vishnu Deo Sai as the next Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh. Sai was made the CM despite former CM Raman Singh being the strong contender. In fact, Raman Singh himself proposed the name of Sai for the top post. Selection Vishny Deo Sai can prove to be a masterstroke for the BJP not only in the state but also for the upcoming Lok Sabha assembly election. 

Vishnu Deo Sai is a popular face in Chhattisgarh's tribal region and holds a good command within the organisation. Chhattisgarh's total population consists of about 32% tribal, which is 7.5% of India's total tribal population. The state has 23 out of the 90 assembly seats reserved for the tribal community. Not only this, Sai hails from the influential Sahu (Teli) community which has a sizable presence in the Durg, Raipur and Bilaspur divisions.

Vishnu Deo Sai comes from the Jashpur district which falls under the Sarguja Division (Northern Chhattisgarh). What is interesting is that the Sarguja division has six districts - Sarguja, Korea, Ramanujganj-Balrampur, Surajpur, Jashpur, and Manendragarh-Chirmiri-Bharatpur. These have a total of 14 assembly seats. In most of the elections, Sarguja electorates vote in a pattern. 

In 2003, the BJP had got 10 seats while the Congress had got just four. In 2008, the BJP got nine and five went to the Congress while in 2013, both the BJP and the Congress got seven each. 

In the 2018 assembly elections, the people were hopeful that TS Singh Deo would be made Congress Chief Minister and they voted one-sided for the party giving 14 out of 14 seats to the Congress. However, Congress went ahead with Bhupesh Baghel as CM, thus disappointing the region. The disappointment was such that even TS Singh Deo lost from his home turf Ambikapur in this year's election. During campaigning, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had urged people to make Vishnu Deo Sai win the polls and he would be made a big man.

छत्तीसगढ़ में CM तय...अब किसको 'भय' ?#Deshhit #ChattisgarhCM #Election2023 #BJP #ZeeNews@priyasi90 @ashwinipande @Tyagiji0744 @Zeepramod pic.twitter.com/b1h26iEZEy — Zee News (@ZeeNews) December 10, 2023

The Sarguja region voted for the BJP this year giving the saffron party all 14 seats. The BJP won 54 of the 90 seats while the Congress won just 35 seats. Had the 14 seats gone to the Congress once again this year just like in 2018, Congress would have formed government once again with 49 seats while BJP would have fallen short once again with just 40 seats. 

Now, by making a tribal Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh, the BJP has not only fulfilled the ambitions of the Sarguja people but now maintains an edge over Congress in adjoining areas of Madya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Odisha which houses a sizeable tribal population. This becomes even more important given the 2024 Lok Sabha polls which is just five months away. 

Also, by making Arun Sao and Vijay Sharma Deputy Chief Ministers, the BJP has played a safe card to keep its OBC andBrahmin votes intact. Raman Singh as speaker of the assembly will thwart any probability of dissent or rebellion while keeping the Rajput voters happy.