Uttarakhand Elections 2017: From political instability to corruption – issues that dominate assembly polls

The assembly elections in Uttarakhand are normally less about issues and more about personalities and cults. The ruling Congress led by Chief Minister Harish Rawat is desperate to retain power for a second consecutive term in this Himalayan state, while the BJP, which is emboldened after the entry of rebels, is determined to dislodge the incumbent government here. Rawat, who is looking forward to a fresh start after the sting CD controversy, faces tough competition from his former Congress colleague Vijay Bahuguna, and BJP stalwart Bhuvan Chandra Khanduri – a popular choice for the CM post from the saffron party. 

The assembly election in the state will be held on February 15 in a single phase across 70 Assembly seats and the results will be announced on March 11. Issues that will dominate the assembly polls here are - political instability, corruption, unemployment, demonetisation, migration, disaster and rehabilitation. Another key issue likely to come up is illegal mining in the state that has left the state being more prone to floods.

Political instability

Uttarakhand witnessed a major political crisis last year when a section of Congress MLAs revolted against CM Harish Singh Rawat. The revolt led to his ouster and imposition of President's Rule in the state which lasted for nearly two months - till he was reinstated by the courts. The rebels moved on to the BJP. 

Inarguably, the assembly polls will be the biggest litmus test for Rawat, who had consolidated his position and won public sympathy by winning the floor test, with the help of BSP, and saved his government in May last year. 

A victory for Congress will certainly brighten his political future. With other senior Congress leaders not in the picture, Rawat is the undisputed CM face of the Congress this time. So, a lot depends on how he steers his party to victory against a resurgent BJP, which is emboldened with the entry of several rebel Congress leaders. 

Former Congress stalwarts who are now in the BJP include Vijay Bahuguna, former minister Harak Singh Rawat, Kunwar Pranab Champion and Satpal Maharaj. The BJP, meanwhile, is hoping to channelise the instability to its advantage.

Corruption

The Congress government has been repeatedly hit by allegations of corruption and it is most likely to emerge as a major poll issue this time, especially with the incumbent being accused of having close and mutually beneficial links with the liquor, mining, sand and timber mafia. 

Incidentally, the first such charge Harish Rawat government faced was last year when his principal secretary, Md Shahid, was shown in a sting video allegedly inking a deal to award liquor distribution to a private player. 

The state government and local administration have also been accused of bungling development funds.The Rawat government has also been accused of not installing police stations in places where animal smuggling is rampant - allegedly to shield criminals.

The BJP has been highlighting these issues in rallies and yatras across the state.The Congress, on the other hand, is expected to focus on issues such as the BJP using unfair means to topple a democratically elected government and the Centre denying funds to the Congress government in the state.

Disaster and rehabilitation

In June 2013, Uttarakhand witnessed one of the biggest natural disasters after cloudburst triggered massive floods and landslides that claimed more than 5,000 lives in the Kedarnath Valley. Following the disaster, then Chief Minister Vijay Bahuguna was replaced with his bête noire, Harish Rawat, in early 2014. 

Relief and rehabilitation work which began after the devastating flash-floods in Uttarakhand has left a lot to be desired. The Congress may have replaced Vijay Bahuguna with Harish Rawat as CM following initial reports of mismanagement, but little seems to have changed on the ground. 

The state government has been accused of bungling funds meant for rebuilding and rehab and have so far dismissed demands for a CBI inquiry. The BJP is expected to take up the issue in a big way ahead of elections in the state, with the Prime Minister leading the charge.

Minority votes

Uttarakhand has nearly 14% Muslim population. Their population varies from 15 to more than 50% in 23 out of the 70 assembly constituencies that are spread across Haridwar (10 segments), Udhamsingh Nagar (8), Dehradun (3) and Nainital (2) districts. The BJP had won 10 of these 23 seats in 2012 assembly polls while Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had shared the rest, 10 and 3. Riding on the Narendra Modi wave, the saffron party did exceptionally well in these areas in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls winning 19 seats while the Congress could get just 4. However, the Narendra Modi wave is missing this time and it can hurt BJP's chances in those segments where Muslims are sizeable in number.

Possibly eyeing the minority vote here, the Harish Rawat government had declared a 90-minute 'namaz break' on Fridays for Muslim employees of Uttarakhand government. However, the move backfired as the opposition parties attacked the Congress government of minority appeasement for political gains. Later, the Harish Rawat government modified the order and announced short breaks for government employees, irrespective of their religion, caste and creed, to offer prayers during their festivals if they make a request for it. 

Migration

Migration from the hills is one of the biggest issues facing political parties in this election. A large number of villagers from the hilly regions of the state have left for a better life in the plains. Over the years, a sizeable number of young people have left these villages for work in cities like Dehradun, Haridwar, Ghaziabad, Noida, Faridabad, Mumbai.

The worst part about the migration from these hilly areas of Uttarakhand is that people have accepted doing the petty of jobs for meagre salaries because of the complete lack of options back home. Ironically, those remaining in these villages have lost faith in the government, whosoever is in power - Congress or BJP.

Demonetisation

While most of the opinion polls gave BJP an upper hand in Uttarakhand after the demonetisation move, no one can really say what impact it would have on voters’ mind. Since Uttarakhand has a large number of retired and serving defence personnel as voters, the sense of nationalism can benefit BJP during the election. On the other hand, Chief Minister Harish Rawat has tried hard to stop the BJP from gaining indirect political benefits in the assembly polls by Centre’s demonetisation decision.

Nearly 20 days after the Centre announced its decision to ban old currency notes of high denomination, the Rawat government constituted a committee to study the impact of the note ban on the state’s revenue and economy. Rawat’s decision to constitute the committee was indicative of Congress party’s concern for countering the BJP on the issue during the assembly election. 

At various occasions, Rawat claimed that his state incurred a loss of Rs 500 to Rs 700 crores due to the Centre’s demonetisation decision. 

Tourism sector is an important source of Uttarakhand’s economy and thus, Rawat highlighted this particular sector as worse affected by the Centre’s note ban move citing a sharp decline in the inflow of tourists.