CMIE pegs GDP growth a tad down to 6% this fiscal
Mumbai: The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has lowered its growth forecast to 6 percent, from 6.2 percent projected earlier, for this fiscal, owing to the delay in recovery in industrial sector and the fall in mining, manufacturing and construction segments.
"We have reduced our GDP forecast to 6 percent," CMIE said in its report on the domestic economy today.
The real GDP growth in the second quarter will be the same as in Q1, 5.5 percent, while the third quarter is expected to show some improvement at 5.9 percent.
"The recovery is thus pushed forward closer to the end of the year. We expect the last quarter to post a 7 percent growth. As a result of this delay in the recovery, the overall growth is expected to decline to 6 percent," the report said.
The downward revision comes weeks after government pegged the GDP growth at 5.5-6 percent. The economic growth fell to a nine-year low of 6.5 percent last fiscal and in the first quarter of the current fiscal, it expanded by only 5.5 percent.
CMIE had projected a 7.7 percent GDP growth for the current fiscal in February based on expectations of a normal monsoon and a revival in the industrial sector predicated on the mining sector's bottlenecks being removed.
The International Monetary Fund last month slashed its 2012 economic growth forecast to 4.9 percent from 6.1 percent.
The CMIE said although every major forecasting agency had reduced the forecast for GDP in FY13, the perception that the prospects have improved has not diluted.
The CMIE has also revised downward its estimate for agriculture production to 1.3 percent from 1.6 percent earlier, with mining and quarrying sector growth slipping to 2 percent from the earlier forecast of 2.6 percent. Similarly, the manufacturing sector growth has also been pegged down to 2.8 percent from 3 percent.
"We have also revised our forecast for the construction sector sharply to 5.7 percent as against earlier projection of 7.2 percent," CMIE said.