GDP growth projections based on estimated oil prices: Arvind Subramanian

CEA Subramanian said that the growth projections could fluctuate in either direction, based on oil prices during the year.

GDP growth projections based on estimated oil prices: Arvind Subramanian

New Delhi: Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) Arvind Subramanian on Tuesday argued that the estimated GDP growth for the next fiscal in the Economic Survey 2017-18 is based on the pre-assumed crude oil prices.

In an interview to ANI, Subramanian noted that the growth projections could fluctuate in either direction, based on oil prices during the year."Certain assumptions have been made with regards to oil prices, as a result of which we arrived at GDP projections of 7 to 7.5 percent. However, it could be more or less, depending on the prices of crude oil," he said.

Earlier on Monday, Subramanian, while addressing a press conference post the presentation of the Economic Survey 2017-18, said the present oil prices had impacted government finances and held back real economic activity."This year, oil prices went up significantly, and affected consumption, government finances and held back real economic activity. If this continues, GDP growth will drop, and inflation will spike in the coming quarters," he said.

Subramanian also shed light on the growing gender gap in the country, adding that there is a necessity for a mindset change regarding the preference of male over female children,"Our research showed that even if there is no selective sex abortion taking place, there still lies a deep preference for male children, which is the result of an age-old mindset. The government has been promoting several schemes such as the 'Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao' scheme.

However, all stakeholders must take collective responsibility," he said.In a bid to reduce the existing gender gap, the Economic Survey recommended that India must confront the societal preference, even meta-preference for a son, which appears inoculated to development. The skewed sex ratio in favour of males led to the identification of "missing" women.

But there may be a meta-preference manifesting itself in fertility stopping rules contingent on the sex of the last child, which notionally creates "unwanted" girls, estimated at about 21 million, adds the Survey. Consigning these odious categories to history soon should be society`s objective, the survey opined.

The survey also acknowledged the government`s Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao and Sukanya Samridhi Yojana schemes, and mandatory maternity leave rules, adding that they were all steps in the right direction. 

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